Friday, July 13, 2012

New Proposed Halifax Ridings

The federal commission in charge of drawing up new federal electoral boundaries has  completed revamping the Nova Scotia bondaries... and most of it stays the same. Indeed, two ridings have zero changes to their boundaries at all (Kings--Hants and Sydney--Victoria), while another three have very small changes that won't change much at all (Halifax, South Shore--St. Margaret's, and Cumberland--Colchester).

The remaining six ridings have some changes, though except for just one ridng, it probably won't change much of anything. For some honourable mentions, Central Nova, Peter MacKay's riding, takes on the eastern portion of Peter Stoffer's riding of Sackville--Eastern Shore and the extreme southern portion of Cumberland--Colchester, while losing some peripheral areas to Cape Breton--Canso, that riding taking on some Conservative portions but given the margin of victory by Rodger Cuzner in 2011, and the fact that no Liberal areas are lost, the dynamics don't change too much. The same can be said for MacKay and Central Nova, which regardless of taking on some NDP areas, won't be shifting too much.

Anyways...



Halifax has somewhat changes. Three of the four ridings that make up the HRM are seeing some changes. I'll start with the one that has the least change.

Halifax West, which is held by Liberal MP Geoff Regan, will see some significant.... shrinkage. It's entire current southern portion has been chopped off by the provisional boundaries, losing an NDP-Conservative area that had low population. But then, the commission has proposed chopping off the eastern part of the town of Bedford, a heavily Liberal area that, while only eight polls overall, is still significant enough to lose the Liberals at least 0.5% of the votes (we only won 35% in 2011). While the riding won't change too heavily, and the Liberals keep some of their most important areas (west Bedford, Clayton Park, and other northern Halifax neighbourhoods). What would've done a mortal blow to Regan was if the commission included parts of Sackville, a very NDP area that is not just down to Peter Stoffer's popularity.

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, held by NDP MP Robert Chisholm who won it barely in 2011 against current Halifax mayoralty frontrunner Michael Savage, is losing the northern part of the riding (north of Main St. and Hwy 111),and I'm not quite sure what the community is called but I do know it included the provincial riding of Dartmouth East, currently held by the Liberals, so we'll call it that. The commission then added the community of Eastern Passage, a very NDP community. Thus the riding will be fairly more New Democratic, helping Robert Chisholm out.

Sackville-Porter Lake is basically Peter Stoffer's old riding shrunk, and is heavily NDP, though it had a significant Conservative presence in 2011, likely due to the long-gun registry issue. But Stoffer's new riding, while maintaining the main area of Sackville, will be adding new Liberal areas that were mentioned before - east Bedford and Dartmouth East. While I don't expect it to challenge Stoffer's reign, it will bump up the Liberal's presence in the new riding. That could actually make things interesting, if there is a good enough Liberal candidate to rally around.

2 comments:

  1. Splitting Darthmouth, as proposed, will hurt the Liberals.

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  2. Yes... I think I made that point with the "the riding will be fairly more New Democratic" bit.

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