Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Trudeau at 40%? Guffhaw.
Some days, I curse whoever started the polling firm Angus Reid - a guy named Angus Reid, oddly enough.
Whether it was the mind-numbingly obvious bias their methodology somehow gave the then-third-party NDP, or the sometimes inane questions they put out there for consideration, AR just irks me like no other polling company other than Campaign Research can. But that's just my opinion.
This, however, is not.
There are minor reasons, such as the fact that AR spent the other previous tables telling us that the other candidates listed, except for maybe Garneau, are all little-known losers.... yet in each situation they poll above the topline numbers, and in each situation the New Democrats have dropped at least four percentage points. To me, it doesn't make a lot of sense that Kennedy, McGuinty, LeBlanc, and Goodale can all apparently boost the Liberal's numbers when in each case over two-thirds of Canadians aren't sure if they're a good or bad choice. That isn't very consistent. And I'm not willing to suggest that Rae, who has a fairly respectable approval-disapproval rating (yes it is negative, but it isn't that bad for a Liberal leader with his baggage), falls behind those guys, who apparently have such an effect on the NDP and Bloc that the Conservatives end up back in first.
But back to Trudeau. I just covered Forum's poll on this before, and it showed a completely different electorate, so we at least have conflicting polls here which should tell you something. At the same time, we should use common sense, which is: Trudeau's name, which is really the only thing that buoys him above the other candidates, is a very polarizing one. A lot of people, especially the older crowd, either love him or hate him. He is the Hillary of Canadian politics, in a sense - but what has he actually done to distinguish himself from someone like Goodale, a former Finance Minister, or even from Kennedy, a former provincial minister with some good policy background? Nothing. He's not really done anything to catch the spotlight yet, except his name.
So for this poll to suggest that Trudeau jumps the party from zero to hero is incredulous to me, simply from a common-sense standpoint. Trudeau has a polarizing name, but he has no substantial background that would account for a 21-point jump. I like Justin a lot, but he's not done anything significant as of yet (and making Ezra Levant nearly cry on TV doesn't count). That is just a fact. And I refuse to believe it his simply his name that gets us this result - and if it is, then I will weep for our country.
So I call shenanigans on this bit from Angus Reid. While a regional breakdown could help explain why we see this jump, I doubt there is any reasoning behind it. It is just bad polling - somewhere, something broke down in the question or the methodology. Forum's poll, even the faux-pollster Robbins SCE's poll, seems more reasonable.
And don't tell me "Quebec did it," because that is a hilariously quick transition for Quebeckers who seem in love with Mulcair. Plausible, I suppose, but again, nothing to support it.