Thursday, June 28, 2012

New Brunswick Poll-by-Poll with New Boundaries

As my co-blogger Teddy mentioned awhile back, New Brunswick has come out with a tentative plan for their new electoral boundaries in the upcoming redistribution, which you can see the official PDF here. This probably won't be the final product, however, it is reflective of the trend that the drawers of these new ridings will be heading in.

Of course, New Brunswick won't be getting any more ridings and will stay with the 10 they currently have. Given that the changes aren't major, its not hard to guess how these new ridings will go - and in fact none of them will really change from how they were before in terms of which party will have an advantage, except maybe for Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, the closest riding in the province.

But while I don't have the transposed numbers for how these ridings would be - I leave that in the capable hands of someone like Alice Funke of Pundit's Guide - I can create pretty maps of the entire province, poll-by-poll, with the 2011 results, with the new ridings messily but mostly accurately pasted on.

The yellow lines are the new boundaries, while the think black lines are the current boundaries - quite a few of them overlap. But there's some clear things you can tell from this map, simple as it is.

For instance, Dominic LeBlanc's riding of Beausejour looks to become slightly more Liberal as it loses the western half of Kent County, which is Conservative. But it won't change it too much.

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe is a bit interesting. The Liberal and NDP areas south of Champlain Rd are lost and the Conservatives gain a few extra polls westward. But given how close this riding was, I doubt that it will give the Conservatives an advantage; most of the riding is still Moncton, and the Conservatives gained no polls in Riverview other than what was there before. So if anything, this riding is still fairly close.

Fredericton loses a lot of area but otherwise remains solidly Conservative, though the possible squeeze could mean that concentrated vote in the city proper of Opposition voters could put the riding in play.

Saint John gains a few Conservative polls and an NDP poll, but nothing has really changed.

Madawaska-Restigouche gains quite a few NDP polls but they're rural, and the Conservatives and Liberals barely lose anything, so not much change there. Where it will affect the most is the riding of Miramichi, which will lose that entire NDP area, making the riding nominally more Conservative.

Anyways, make of it what you will, I just found it supremely interesting.

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