Friday, June 8, 2012

Morning Nanos Poll: 33.6% NDP, 33.5% Con, 24.9% Liberal

Once again Nanos brings Liberals everywhere a small ray of hope in the form some slightly-trend-breaking numbers, in more ways than one.

Nanos Research (Federal - May 26-31, 2012)
New Democrats: 33.6% (+1.2%) - 116 seats (+1 seat)
Conservatives: 33.5% (-1.2%) - 116 seats (-7 seats)
Liberal Party: 24.9% (+1.6%) - 75 seats (+6 seats)
Green Party: 2.4% (-1.8%) - 1 seat
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 13.9% (-2.5%)

Changes are from the last Nanos poll, and they're not that significant really - some swapped points between the NDs and the Cons leads to a tie in the seat count and essentially the vote count. The Liberals, who according to Nanos are apparently at 30% in Ontario (plausible), 23% in BC (less plausible), and 24% in the Prairies (LOL), earn a fairly good clutch of seats... but, as I said, its not impossible, but it isn't following the current trend, which has the Liberals at 20%.

The other odd factor about this poll is the fact that the Bloc is so low, almost 10 points lower than what other pollsters have pegged them at in Quebec recently (22-25%). Obviously at 13.9% of the vote, the Bloc isn't in contention for anything in the province. But if Nanos were showing them at the same levels as other polls, then the New Democrats would have less seats than the Cons right now, more-or-less guaranteed.

It's so obvious too - Nanos has nearly 7% "Others" in the province of Quebec right now, and I highly doubt it's caquistes being trolls. And unlike the Liberals thing, which wobbles from sane to totally out there, Nanos has been very consistent with this lower-Bloc trend, which is a bit disconcerting to say the least.

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