Monday, June 18, 2012

Forum Poll: 37% NDP, 30% Con, 22% Lib, plus Trudeau polling!!1!

And fun what-if scenarios with Justin Trudeau (that are highly speculative)!

But, to the un-fun stuff first,  these Forum numbers, which show the largest lead for the New Democrats so far in polling, 7%, and I believe the first tie in Ontario of 34% each for the NDP and the Conservatives - though that isn't as impressive as it sounds for a couple of reasons, that I'll explain below. Changes from their last poll are in brackets.

Forum Research (Federal - June 14, 2012)
New Democrats: 37% (+1%) - 140 seats (+4 seats)
Conservatives: 30% (-2%) - 102 seats (-16 seats)
Liberal Party: 22% (+2%) - 62 seats (+13 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 22% (+1%) - 3 seats (-1 seats)
Green Party: 5% (-1%) - 1 seat

 While it is certainly enough for a strong minority government of 140 seats (or so, MOE willing), it doesn't give the NDP a majority and still need the Liberals to rely on to do stuff. Nevertheless, it is still a very impressive number for the NDP, whose previous high was the last Forum poll of 36% (in 2011-2012 polling).

That said with these numbers, which include dominance of the western provinces minus Alberta, 19% lead in Quebec, and dominance in Atlantic Canada, the only thing the NDP are missing is Ontario - even though they're tied.

This is because Forum had the unfortunate ability to put the Liberals at 28% in the province, at which point the Liberals easily win those old suburban GTA ridings that the NDP can't seem to. That means even trailing those two parties, the Liberals win 32 seats to the Con's 44 and the NDP's 30. This is what happens when you have a super-concentrated vote base, folks.

Imagine for  second that the Ontario numbers, instead of being 34-34-28, were 40-35-20 in favour of the NDP. While the NDP couldn't win the plurality of Ontario's seats, you'd have the Cons winning 53 seats, the NDP 47, and 6 Liberals.

That would translate to 157 seats nationally for the NDP, compared to 111 for the Cons and 36 for the Liberals. Ontario will forever be the thorn at the NDP's side, it seems.

But on to the fun part: Trudeaumania!

This is similar to a poll done awhile back by Robbins SCE, often considered a voodoo polling company, that showed a Trudeau-led LPC essentially tying with the Cons and NDP, even beating the latter out for second place. At the same time they still fell short thanks to NDP domination in Quebec, and were still third.

Now we come to Forum, a much more highly respected firm, and these are the numbers the Liberals under Trudeau would come to (apparently):

Foiled again! While the race is obviously much closer, the Liberals are still third and the NDP would still win. The main hitch for the Liberals is that despite an amazing result in Quebec, their strength is all in Montreal, thus the NDP romp around outside of the Montreal CMA where competition is light. This is, again, simply a swing model, but it makes more sense that Montreal would vote in droves for the Liberals, and non-Montreal Quebecois are going to think about it a lot more. Remember that the weakest area for the NDP is Montreal and Quebec City, not the suburbs and rural areas of the province.

Ontario is another odd one, with a three-way tie in the province. That strikes me as the oddest, because you'd think with an apparently popular Liberal leader, the NDP would suffer and drop below 30%. Not so for Forum, it seems.

Amusingly the only place Trudeau does worse than the standard Forum Lib numbers is Alberta, dropping a percentage point. Gotta love those Albertans, man.

1 comment:

  1. Actually, Toronto is still being ripped off. The yokels get more ridings/vote.