Thursday, June 7, 2012

Forum Ontario Poll: 36% PC, 30% NDP, 28% OLP

This latest Forum Research poll for the provincial scene in Ontario has shown slight increases for the PCs and Liberals, and a drop for Dippers and Greenies - however all of it is more-or-less within the margin of error from their last poll.

Forum Research (Ontario - June 5, 2012)
Prog Cons: 36% (+2%) - 53 seats
New Dems: 30% (-2%) - 31 seats
Ont Liberals: 28% (+1%) - 23 seats
Greens: 4% (-1%)

Unlike Environics, we don't see a huge Green rush, which isn't a surprise - Environics' either hit a vein of Greenies, or their methodology allowed for more dissatisfied voters the option to choose the Greens. Sorry, Mike.

As always, Forum gives us their own seat projection, which is hilariously skewed - 52 PCs, 37 Libs, and 18 Dippers. The headline Mr. Bozinoff used - "NDP Cheated Out of Seats" - is also hilariously skewed, but I suppose it's more a sensationalist slip of the tongue than blatant bias... or is it? Not that it matters, I personally put enough faith in Forum's numbers (most of the time).

Why does Forum have such odd seat numbers? Here's a possible reason why: 986 polled individuals means an average of 9 to 10 people per riding. You cannot make any credible projection based on the preferences of what at most will be 20 people. Forum's seat projection is useless in this case, and it's why a model like the one I use is more credible - it's a swing models, and swing models are a helluva lot more accurate than 20 people's opinions.

Anyways, this poll had some other interesting breakdowns, including party supporter's religions. Unsurprisingly, 58% of evangelical Christians are PC supporters, as are 48% of Protestants; Catholics are split three-ways among all the parties; non-Christians are split between Liberals (41%) and the NDP (36%), while "None" are apparently a healthy plurality of Dippers (40%).

However... apparently only 27% of those who were in this poll said they were Catholics. The last proper census figures, which I can only find as the 2001 census, showed this number at nearly 35%. The number of protestants are also apparently down, from 35% to 32%. Meanwhile, the numbers for non-Christians is lower than in 2001 (8% compared to 9%). These numbers, I'm not so very sure they were weighted in any significant way - so try to take them with a grain of salt, folks. Nevertheless, very neat to look at.

As usual, lots of good things to look into a Forum poll if you've got some time. Including as well federal voter intention numbers, which are 36% Con, 31% NDP, and 25% Liberals - or 55-27-24. Kind of standard for what we've seen lately.

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