Thursday, June 14, 2012

First Post-Election Alberta Poll: 39% PC, 36% WRP

Forum Research, which was sadly the pollster with the closest numbers in the April election this year in Alberta, has become the first pollster out-of-the-gates in the run up to the next Alberta election, showing a drop for the PCs and slight rises for the Wildrosers and the NDP (changes are from the election).

Forum Research (Alberta - June 11, 2012)
Prog Cons: 39% (-5%) - 46 seats (-15 seats)
Wildrosers: 36% (+2%) - 30 seats (+13 seats)
New Dems: 12% (+2%) - 6 seats (+2 seats)
Liberals: 9% (-1%) - 5 seats (=)
Alberta: 2% (+1%)

I know what you're thinking - who the hell cares, the polls were wrong before, its years before another election, etc. You may even think that these polls are so wrong that you'll start sounding like Warren Kinsella and the various trolls on his site claiming propaganda and junk science, and other nonsense, and think Redford is actually polling in the high 50's or something.

If you are one of those people, please know that you're wrong, just as wrong as you claim the pollsters are.

Anyways, it is a bit of a fluff poll considering it is so far from a possible election, but it is still interesting anyways, especially given this is Forum and they always have some extra bits to look at.

For instance, Redford has a net approval rate of +5%, 45% approval over 40% disapproval. Amusingly enough for a Conservative, she earns 40% approval from New Democrats (!!), 43% approval from Liberals, while only 14% approval among Wildrosers.

Danielle Smith meanwhile has a net approval of +2%, 41% approval to 39% disapproval, and is more approved of among PC supporters (25%) than the reverse.

Sherman is the only leader with a net disapproval, 34% approval to 38% disapproval, while Mason has net approval, 38% approval to 33% disapproval.

The recent decision by the Redford government to reinstate provincial coverage of gender reassignment surgery has been met with wide disapproval, 60% to 29% approving, and no region - even Edmonton - showing net approval. Only among the NDP supporters does it have net approval anywhere (50% to 40%).

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