Friday, May 18, 2012

Two Quebec Forum Polls

Forum Research has come out with a set of twin polls only two days apart, which if you read their summaries have apparently seen a massive shift of numbers, while in fact everything stayed the same. I don't know what's going on there, but whatever.

Both polls show the PLQ at 35% the PLQ at 35% and 34%, and the PQ at 33%, with the CAQ moving between 18% and 19%. The QS is also steady at 10%.

Forum (Québec - May 15th/May17th)
Parti libéral: 35%/34% - 62 députés/61 députés
Parti Québécois: 33% - 56 députes/58 députes
Coalition avenir: 19%/18% - 5 députés/4 députés
Québec solidaire: 10% - 2 députés
Parti vert: 4%/3%

In both cases, les libéraux maintain a lead over the péquistes. Forum's own "seat projections" however say that the May17th poll would give the PQ 60 seats to the PLQ's 57. It's all in the margin of error, really, but yeah, seems odd to me. Not that the PQ can't win more seats with less vote, but it's still odd.

The main meat of this poll is supposed to be questions on the student protesters, which also explains why Forum has these twin polls out - the new legislation proposed by the Charest government to "calm the situation," and other events. At least, that's my theory.

You can see the numbers in this screenshot here:

 Forum has acted a bit like this is some huge shift, though it's pretty much in line with every single other poll they've done. In fact one could claim that their May 15th numbers were outliers. Opinion seems fairly static on this issue, and indeed as Forum goes on to point out, it's something of a partisan issue.

Pretty much, Liberals and caquistes support the government, while péquistes, solidairistes(?), and Greenies support the students. Nothing much else to it, really.

Amusingly as well, none of the three "big" party leaders - Charest, Marois, or Legault - are approved of more than they are disapproved. They didn't bother polling for Khadir and Sabourin, but no one cares about them anyways.

Then again, I shouldn't say that about Amir Khadir and the QS. The nature of the protesters and the ideology of Québec solidaire should be a perfect match, yet they still sit at 10% of the vote. Granted that's a lot better than the 4% they got in 2008, it's actually in line with their recent trend numbers pre-protests, so it's still not impressive. Odd.

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