The Canadian Association of Retired Peoples is out with a poll of roughly 2,600 of their members (individuals over 55 years old, mostly), and apparently is shows the topline numbers of 39% NDP, 31% Conservative, and 25% Liberal.
Below is my post on their poll that came out in March 2011, showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives, 42% to 41%. I think that post itself speaks for this one as well. Don't trust everything you see.
circulating the blogosphere recently done by the Canadian Association
of Retired Persons (CARP) on the voting intentions of their specific
voter subset - people over the age of 55. This poll essentially states
that among CARP's membership, the Conservatives have had a huge drop in
support, going from a high of about 52% in early February, to 41% now -
while the Liberals jumped from 32% to 42% in the same time. This is
taken as an indication that the Conservatives are facing something of a
backlash amongst older voters.
Before anyone gets excited though, remember that a single poll is not a
trend - and so far, no poll has shown the kind of drop amongst older
voters that CARP has. Right away, the numbers presented must be taken
with a very large grain of salt.
The other fact throwing doubt upon this poll is the fact that it's
amongst CARP's own membership, and it's methodology and samples are
questionable. Let me explain.
CARP's poll is an online poll of approx. 2,000 participants, all of whom
are subscribers and readers of CARP's newsletter that obviously come
online. That, however, is as much as we know; there is no explanation of
their methodology, of any weighting system used, of regional data,
voting subsets (income, race, age, gender, etc.), or whatever else you
can think of. Essentially, all CARP's poll could mean is that there are a
lot more older people from the GTA who are possibly lower income
reading the online newsletter right now.
Which is what may have actually happened. Looking over the "raw data"
of CARP's poll, you can see that 61.2% of the 2,515 votes came from
Ontario, 7.9% came from Alberta, and 2.9% came from Quebec. That right
there is a serious indication that your samples are flawed in a very big
Going on, you continue to see other big flaws in the samples, including
in gender (I didn't know over 2/3 of Canadians were male), income, and
even age brackets. And with no indication that the samples were weighed
to battle against these results, there is a big question of validity in
this poll. It's more or less a voodoo poll, something that is pretty to
look at but we can't possibly base any data or hopes off of.
What really kills me is CARP's insistence that this poll is just as
credible as others. It isn't. Don't believe it. Whatever these results
may say, they can't be trusted. That's simply the truth. There's not
likely such a big drop in Conservative support amongst this 55+ age
bracket. And in no way have I seen CARP reflect any polling trend yet.
No Conservative implosion.
No Liberal upswing. I hate to burst people's bubble, but this poll is
not trustworthy. Simple as that - until anyone can prove me wrong,