Ipsos-Reid (Federal - May 10, 2012)
Conservatives: 37% (+3%) - 147 seats
New Democrats: 35% (+2%) - 117 seats
Liberal Party: 19% (=) - 42 seats
Bloc Québécois: 5% (-2%) - 2 seats
Green Party: 3% (-5%) - 0 seats
It's an interesting poll because it seems most of the changes have occurred because of a drop in the Green Party's vote, which was at 8% in the last Ipsos poll. Even Lizzy May goes down to defeat in Saanich--Gulf Islands.
This poll is kind of funny, though. There are certain regionals that don't add up to recent trends.
For one, the Cons apparently lead with 51% in British Columbia, compared to 33% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals. The average has the NDP around 38%, and the Cons around 35%. At 51% of the vote in BC, the Cons essentially wipe the board clean, winning 27 of 36 seats.
In Atlantic Canada, the Cons lead with 38% to 35% for the Liberals. Not unheard of during the pre-2011 era, but that kind of close Con-Lib race in Atlantic Canada, in the mid-30's no less, is a bit odd. The NDP sit with just 27%.
Then we have Ontario. My own province has the race as 36% Con to 35% NDP, with the Liberals far back at just 23%. That would put almost all ridings in the City of Toronto proper at risk of falling to the NDP (outside of the richer ones, e.g. Don Valley West, York Centre, Willowdale, Eglinton-Lawrence), though they'd still not be as competitive in the suburbs, where most ridings are still Con-Lib. But rural ridings definitely show a shift towards the Con-NDP fight, with few Liberal holdouts.
Not so odd, but the fact that it's in the mid-30's is a bit different.
**UPDATE**: Regionals as requested below:
|* Green numbers unknown|