Tuesday, May 15, 2012

UPDATED: Ipsos-Reid Poll: 37% Con, 35% NDP, 19% Lib

Ipsos Reid has come out with a new poll that shows both the Conservatives and the NDP running high, with the advantage going to the incumbents by 2% of the vote. And luckily this time, I was able to get the regionals.

Ipsos-Reid (Federal - May 10, 2012)
Conservatives: 37% (+3%) - 147 seats
New Democrats: 35% (+2%) - 117 seats
Liberal Party: 19% (=) - 42 seats
Bloc Québécois: 5% (-2%) - 2 seats
Green Party: 3% (-5%) - 0 seats

It's an interesting poll because it seems most of the changes have occurred because of a drop in the Green Party's vote, which was at 8% in the last Ipsos poll. Even Lizzy May goes down to defeat in  Saanich--Gulf Islands.

This poll is kind of funny, though. There are certain regionals that don't add up to recent trends.

For one, the Cons apparently lead with 51% in British Columbia, compared to 33% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals. The average has the NDP around 38%, and the Cons around 35%. At 51% of the vote in BC, the Cons essentially wipe the board clean, winning 27 of 36 seats.

In Atlantic Canada, the Cons lead with 38% to 35% for the Liberals. Not unheard of during the pre-2011 era, but that kind of close Con-Lib race in Atlantic Canada, in the mid-30's no less, is a bit odd. The NDP sit with just 27%.

Then we have Ontario. My own province has the race as 36% Con to 35% NDP, with the Liberals far back at just 23%. That would put almost all ridings in the City of Toronto proper at risk of falling to the NDP (outside of the richer ones, e.g. Don Valley West, York Centre, Willowdale, Eglinton-Lawrence), though they'd still not be as competitive in the suburbs, where most ridings are still Con-Lib. But rural ridings definitely show a shift towards the Con-NDP fight, with few Liberal holdouts.

Not so odd, but the fact that it's in the mid-30's is a bit different.

**UPDATE**: Regionals as requested below:

* Green numbers unknown


  1. Yes, this poll is a departure from other recent polls (Forum and Harris-Decima - late April to early May). What is interesting is the margin of error for the poll in different regions. Quite large actually, making the results pretty much useless.

  2. That's usually how Ipsos rolls, though. They're not very far off the mark all that often either. So take it with a grain of salt, yes, but it's credible enough for me (well, maybe the BC and Atlantic numbers could use a tweak).

  3. Since you have regional numbers can you post a province-by-province seat breakdown?

  4. It is fine to say that Liberals will increase their seat total in Quebec because they are up 2 and half points. It quite another to pinpoint what seats they would pick up. This is especially so in light of the fact that NDP are up 2 points in province.

    1. Hey, even if the NDP sweeps the province, they'd just have 131 seats -- which would put them still shy of the Conservatives. Growth's needed outside of Quebec to beat the Conservatives.

    2. What? That's not true at all. The Liberals have some fairly clear ridings they can edge out in Quebec, even in the face of the NDP's numbers rising with it.

      In my model, the Liberals pick up Ahuntsic and Pierrefonds--Dollard, two ridings where there was a close race, and the Liberal's slightly higher rise according to the Ipsos numbers (nearly 3%) compared to the NDP's (little over 2%), gives the Liberals an edge.

      I'm not saying it's an exact science, but it makes sense. After all, most 2011 Conservative votes in Montreal were former Liberals. The lower their vote, it's intuitive to assume that a good portion of them will go to the Liberals over the NDP, or the Bloc. Hence, you get an edge.

      Not an exact science but not exactly a hard guess, either.

  5. I forgot about Pierrefonds--Dollard.

    As for Ahuntsic, the NDP were 2.25 points ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives have never been a factor there. The Liberals took 38% of the vote in 2008 in Ahuntsic when they took 23.7% of the vote. The Bloc is dead and I have a hard time seeing Bloc voters in Ahuntsic moving over to anyone but the NDP.

    1. The Bloc is not THAT dead, as it's sitting at roughly where it was in May 2011 - 23-25%. They could hold that amount if they tried to.

      And yes, Ahuntsic Cons are small in number, but in a close three-way race, 8% of the vote could count for a lot.