Thursday, May 3, 2012

Harris-Decima Poll: 33% NDP, 30% Con, 20% Lib

This poll is interesting in that it confirms the Forum Research numbers of last week, yet at the same time, as Harris-Decima does, overestimates the Greens (changes from the last poll in brackets):

Harris-Decima (Federal - April 30th, 2012)
New Democrats: 33% (+1) - 119 seats* (-3 seats)
Conservatives: 30% (-40) - 117 seats* (-24 seats)
Liberals: 20% (+1) - 58 seats* (+19 seats)
Bloc Québécois: 7% (+1) - 13 seats (+7 seats)
Greens: 8% (=) - 1 seat


You'll notice that the three main parties have their seat counts with a little asterisk - this is because, for some odd reason, Harris-Decima only gave the regionals for Ontario and Quebec. I was forced to guesstimate what other provinces were at - luckily the changes in the two main provinces accounted for a lot of the national movement anyways.

This is because the biggest change was in Ontario, where the Conservatives dropped from 41% to 33%, and the NDP rose from 24% to 31%, and the Liberals inched up their own point (but thanks to the Con drop, earned quite a few seats). That accounted for a roughly 2.5% drop in the Conservative national vote.

Quebec also explains why the NDP, despite going up a point nationally, actually lost seats. The Bloc jumped from 24% to 29%, a very good number for them, while the NDP remained steady at 39%. Quebec is increasingly becoming a Dipper-Bloc fight, though the separatist party is failing to make major gains as of yet, just keeping themselves steady - a feat in and of itself, giving their poor fundraising as of late.

When (or if) Harris-Decima gets the full regionals out, I'll update the above.

6 comments:

  1. Wow, the NDP on the rise. We picked well in Mulcair, i think he is one of the reasons we are polling so high.

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    1. I won't disagree with that conclusion. Mulcair has so far proven to be a big boon, especially in Quebec and somewhat in Ontario, in a way that I doubt someone like Topp, Cullen, or Nash would've.

      At the same time, remember this really is still the "honeymoon" period for Mulcair. Give it another month, and then see if his numbers hold.

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    2. I think also Atlantic Canada is impressive. They lead by 7% on average and that includes New Brunswick, and Newfoundland . I think a lot of seats will go to the NDP next election in that region if these numbers hold.

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    3. Well, the thing is with Atlantic Canada is that a lot of the NDP's support is very, very concentrated in certain ridings. That's why with 29% support in the last election, they only gained two extra seats and remained far behind in third, though there were some close ridings to be sure.

      If you use 308.com's numbers (which is the 7.3% lead), they still only take 9 seats to the Liberal's 13 and the Con's 10. This is because they're only competitive in maybe five more ridings above what they have, three which they win with those numbers.

      Outside of those five ridings, they aren't competitive at all. Look at their numbers in rural New Brunswick, Newfoundland, PEI, and Nova Scotia, and except for South Shore-St. Margaret's, they aren't competitive at all. And unfortunately for the NDP, running up numbers in the cities isn't useful, because most Atlantic Canada ridings are rural.

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  2. This will be the first elections when the NDP will be looked at as a government alternative. A lot of people ( i would say about 30%) would only vote for one of the top 2. I think part of the liberal collapse is because the NDP became second at the latter stage of the campaign. But still, polls are not fully trusted by everyone while results are.

    I think due to the media coverage, a lot of liberal and some conservative voters will go to the ndp since they are now one of the top 2. That would put some rural/subruban ridings in play everywhere.

    This is all hypothetical of course, but we will see next election. Maybe we won't see since anything could happen and liberals could be back in second by then.

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    1. That's a theory, and I don't necessarily disagree, except that I think the number that vote for either of the "top two" is not set at 30%, but is very fluid from election to election. People that want to vote against the government, often vote for the second-place party because they view that party as the best to take the government out. That is, of course, "strategic voting," it's a very natural part of people's voting patterns.

      The thing is, if the NDP want to form more than the one-off governments they formed in provinces like Ontario or BC, they can't rely simply on being the "Opposition," because that relies on the Conservatives being the worse of the two. If the Conservatives manage to hold themselves up - and by all accounts they've survived bigger polling deficits than what's currently going on - then the NDP won't get as many votes. Just how it is.

      Plus, the suburbanites of the country did not shift to the NDP in any major way outside of Quebec. Unless that problem is rectified, the NDP chances of forming a government is fairly slim. Luckily (for you, anyways), Mulcair is the guy to do that.

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