Monday, May 28, 2012

Forum Poll: 36% NDP, 32% Con, 20% Liberal

And in case you were unsure, this poll could also prove that voters are more persuadable than you think by irrational arguments to nostalgia, as people apparently believe this:
45% of respondents said a low Canadian dollar that supports manufacturing was better for the country than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports, compared to 35% who disagreed.
Are you kidding me!? Maybe people are do like that concept more, but what policies are going to come out of this if you follow it? Apparently no one thinks about that.

... Anyways, the poll is slightly different than we've seen from the last while, returning more to the mean shown by pre-Ipsos polls. Full numbers below, changes are from the last Forum poll:

Forum Research (Federal - May 24, 2012)
New Democrats: 36% (=) - 136 seats (+6 seats)
Conservatives: 32% (-1%) - 118 seats (+6 seats)
Liberal Party: 20% (-2%) - 49 seats (-13 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21% (-2%) - 4 seats (+1 seat)
Green Party: 6% (+4) - 1 seat (=)

Fairly standard poll for these days, the Liberals hitting the 20% or high teens on a consistent basis is not good, however. We need to ramp up our efforts, languishing in third place isn't the best idea. I suppose, though, it starts with a new leader...


  1. No worries for the CPC, really. Once it becomes clear that the NDP are a real threat to form government how much of that remaining Liberal 20% will go CPC? Even a 5-7% change in Liberal support will give the CPC another majority. The Liberal middle is going to get very tight, very soon, like 8% tight.

    1. That's an awesome assumption, but it's currently unfounded.

    2. I hope the CPC braintrust keep underestimating the NDP and Mulcair, Rat, as you are.. because if they do.. they'll be in for a nasty surprise.

    3. Underestimate the NDP? Not at all! I think it's you who are overestimating the draw of a third place (fourth if the Bloc is resurgent) party on blue Liberals. The red/Orange/pink Liberals have already fled the Titanic. All one need do is look at how quick the Liberal vote in Alberta collapsed when Liberal voters had to choose between bad and worse.

      No, I am not commenting at all on the NDP.

    4. Rat, the fact is that we've seen the Liberals third before provincially, even in Ontario, and what you're saying is hardly a universal fact. It's too simplistic to assume that Liberals in third = all flee to Cons.

    5. Also, Ontario Liberals and Quebec Liberals are completely different creatures. The same is true for BC Liberals, and Atlantic Liberals, and Liberals on the Prairies.

      Prairie Liberals tend to be a bit more Libertarian than Liberals elsewhere. Goodale and Lamoureux would easily fit on the right of the party. Though the latter has some socially conservative views, this is not in line with the majority of Prairie Liberals. In fact, beyond Lamoureux, and one MP from the Atlantic, MacAulay, most of the socially conservative Liberals come from Ontario. BC Liberals tend to see themselves as centrists who offer another alternative to the Socialists and the Social Conservatives. Quebec Liberals have a very "big tent". Atlantic Liberals come from a tradition where the two parties are seen as "Team Red" and "Team Blue".

      So which of these Liberals are likely to switch?

      Both the NDP and Tories do have Libertarian qualities. Prairie Liberals are very susceptible to switching. In fact, I have a suspicion that we might not manage a full slate in Saskatchewan next election unless we somehow turn things around.

      Switch? No, but I could see our polling numbers be low enough that we are wiped off the map. Some centrist moderates may just stay home, and/or the new riding boundaries might squeeze us out.

      Team Red VS Team Blue usually assures us that each party (Liberal/Tory) will win a pre-set minimum number of seats. 1993 and 1997 saw doubt build in to this, but the basic idea remains. The risk is that the NDP might be able to convince people that now they are "Team Red", but, so far this has not happened. Atlantic Liberals are the least likely to switch of any group, and if things go poorly for us, we could end up with a caucus that is 50%+1 from the Atlantic.

      There is a real danger here that a strong play by the other parties could steal out base. Look what happened in the west-island ridings during Mulroney's term of office. If both the Tories and NDP make a drive for Liberal voters they can indeed win them over. The catch is they need to purposefully make that attempt. Gaining additional ridings would be difficult, and of the ridings we have, Lac St. Louis, Mount Royal, and even possibly Westmount could be convinced to go Tory, while the NDP could win every other riding we hold in Quebec, plus Westmount, and Lac St. Louis. If the next election is a tight horserace, we could be wiped out of this province. This is significant, since in the Liberals first election ever, in 1851 as "Les Rouges" we managed 4 seats in Quebec.* If we can not manage 4 seats it will be... well it'll be real bad.

      There is a risk of some of our supporters abandoning the party. This will depend greatly on geography. Rural Liberals have already gone. City Liberals are also quite rare. The two groups we have left are Suburban Liberals and Town Liberals. It is the latter, mostly from college towns, that exist in Guelph and Kingston. They are very likely to remain very loyal to the party, but could easily be crowded out by supporters from other parties. City Liberals have already been stolen, so what is left is what we have to rely on. It's the Liberals in the more suburban areas like Toronto north of the 401, in Scarborough, and Etobicoke that are in danger of being stolen away. All you have to do to win these groups is scare them that the "bad guys" (IE NDP/CPC) are going to win unless they vote properly.

      So you can not just say that the entire "liberal middle" will go because, in short, it already has. What's left is a scattered assortment of liberal-like groups that each have their own reasons for voting Liberal

  2. Um.. I dont know, Kyle.. the Ontario Premier is the other guy who supports what Mulcair said about manufacturing and a high dollar.. cuz he said it first a few months ago.

    I bet more Liberals do as well, then some on the Big Business side of the party would care for.

    1. I don't necessarily agree with McGuinty any more than I do Mulcair on this matter. It's obvious that the high dollar has hurt manufacturing - but whether where we were before is "better," especially for Canada as a whole, is questionable in my mind. I fall on the side of the reasons why our dollar is high - being a commodities country, having sound finances in most respects, and the depressive economic climate to the south right now - aren't bad things, and indeed, the first is just a fact of life, the second is preferable,and the third is out of our control.

      Thing is, I can't blame McGuinty for sticking up for Ontario manufacturers, it's his job, any more than one can blame Redford for sticking up for the oilsands. Mulcair, on the other hand, is a federal leader, and is applying for a job whereby everyone is looking at him for leadership to solve these kinds of problems in a way that tit-for-tat provincial bickering cannot. But Mulcair's not playing that role, is he?

  3. No wonder Bob Rae is the frontrunner for leader with these great numbers!

    1. Lol, right you are Jordan, right you are.