Thursday, May 10, 2012

UPDATED: Federal HD Poll: 34% NDP, 30% Con, 20% Lib

It's an interesting little poll, for some reason currently lacking a proper link to its official PDF file, but Harris-Decima was nice enough to lay out the entire poll in one go here, and the full regionals are here.

Harris-Decima (Federal - May 10th)
New Democrats: 34% (+1) - 129 seats
Conservatives: 30% (=) - 110 seats
Liberal Party: 20% (=) - 59 seats
Bloc Québécois: 7% (=) - 9 seats
Green Party: 8% (=) - 1 seat

It's not what I'd call ground-shattering, because it shows essentially no difference from their last poll, out a week ago, except that the NDP got bumped up a point, apparently from the "Others" column.

Even the regionals show little difference. Ontario is 32% Con to 31% NDP and 28% Liberal, and their last poll it was 33-31-27.

Quebec this time is 38% NDP, 27% Bloc, 14% Lib, and 12% Con. Last time it was 39-29-14-10.

Whoopee. Why this poll is getting fanboys, I have no idea. It's exactly the same damn one as last time. It's like Harris-Decima re-released the last poll with more regionals and a couple of new numbers.


Full regionals below:


  1. It is not 1 poll, this is the 3rd poll in a row showing the NDP with at least 3 point lead. Before today, the previous polls were not seriously taken, now this confirms a trend. There are always polls that shows some party with a surprising result, but if more than 1 poll shows it, it becomes more of a trend.

  2. I was pretty sure the other polls were taken seriously...

    Anyways, I know this. But it's not that big of a deal. I feel like some people are taking this poll as some sort of zeitgeist moment.


  4. Do you have regional breakdown for the seats based on this poll?

  5. I do indeed, they're linked above (or in Thor's comment there). I had the numbers before they fixed the link as well, so it's all good.

  6. thanks, but I meant the seat breakdown, not the vote breakdown. I wanted how does those regional numbers translate to seats in your model.

  7. Sure, I'll have them up in a couple of minutes.