Friday, May 18, 2012

Environics Poll: 36% NDP, 32% Con, 19% Liberal

Indeed, except unfortunately Environics only released the numbers for Quebec and Ontario, because hey, why not hide the rest of the country from us? Seriously pollsters, don't do this. That's twice this month now.

This means I can't do a full projection, but you can get something of a sense where things are going. We'll focus on Ontario for now, as Quebec is another blowout for the NDP, winning 45% to the Bloc's 25%.

Environics (Ontario Federal - May 7-9, 2012)
Conservatives: 36% - 52 seats
New Democrats: 32% - 27 seats
Liberal Party: 26% - 27 seats
Green Party: 6%

With those numbers, I can guarantee you one thing: the New Democrats will have a bare national lead, because they're so far behind in Ontario. 32% of the vote is not enough to get them up in the high thirties in Ontario, not when the Conservatives maintain a lead and the Liberals maintain 25% of the vote. It's just how it is.

The only thing that puts them over the top would be Quebec, based on reasonable guesses about the other provinces (based on trends).

Now, I know people talk a lot about the marginalization of Quebec or the West, but Ontario is going to be marginalized with these numbers, as they'll likely be the only major province except for Alberta without a significant NDP presence (a third of the seats, in my estimation, is "significant"). Consider that for a moment.

Anyways, I'd like to wade into the sort-of debate between Steve V and BigCityLib right now about whether Mulcair's "Dutch disease" comments will hurt his leadership. Personally I think it's too early to tell whether the comments and the reaction will hurt Mulcair, but this Environics poll doesn't actually matter anyways - most of the flak for the comments has come out after the May 7th-9th that the polling was done on. And in fairness the most recent poll to come out was Ipsos Reid on May 10th, which showed a Conservative lead. Just sayin'.

The next polls to come out will shed more light on whether Mulcair has hit gold or pyrite, Environics however is meaningless.

5 comments:

  1. Your right, but nevertheless their May 9th polling would have come four days after the story broke. So I don't think its entirely meaningless.

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    1. I disagree, because all the talk about it came afterwards. Obviously we'll see, though - I lean towards it hurting Mulcair, but I'm not married to that theory.

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  2. In fairness also, Ipsos showed the NDP at 34% in Ontario, one point behind the CPC. If that's an indication of the kind of damage in store for Mulcair then watch out. Just sayin'!

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    1. I should have written NDP at 35%, one point down according to Ipsos.

      And by the way, I am very leery of a swing model and seat projection showing the NDP growing 10% but gaining only 10 seats, giving them almost half the number of seats the CPC would win with one point higher.

      A jump in support of that magnitude for the NDP, or for any party, would not distribute uniformly or proportionately but rather would disproportionately concentrate in ridings where the NDP is more competitive. More like 15% in the sault/oshawa/etc versus 5% in carleton/refrew/etc.

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    2. I'd agree somewhat, except the swing models almost perfectly predicted the result in Ontario in 2011, with even a pure swing model actually giving the 73-22-11 split we saw. Ontario is very conducive to national swings, especially federally, as the water rises more or less uniformly across the province.

      You are right that the NDP may increase more in seats like Oshawa and Toronto and so on, but it's very marginal in my experience.

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