Tuesday, May 15, 2012

CAQ Shows Off Federalist Appeal in Argenteuil by-election

... by nominating the former Bloc Québécois MP for the area to run the upcoming provincial by-election in Argenteuil.

The Coalition Avenir Québec, headed up by former péquiste MNA and cabinet member François Legault, is supposed to be a vehicle whereby federalists and sovereigntistes can band together under his banner and usher in the era of ideological-based politics (as opposed to the current federalist-sovereigntist dichotomy).

And in their first big test of the staying power of their party in the provincial scene, they nominated a former Bloc MP who was defeated by the NDP last year in a big way. Ahuh.

We were all waiting for this by-election to happen, and it shall, on June 11th. Les libéraux have nominated Lise Proulx, someone heavily involved in the area's health services and hospitals, while the péquistes have nominated Roland Richer, whose is apparently a teacher at something called "CCEM," and no I don't know what that is, but his biography is amusing, making references to debating people like Claude Ryan, because I guess he ran back in the 1970's. I don't know.

Then we have Mario Laframboise, nominated by the CAQ. Mario was the former Bloc MP before being defeated heavily by Dipper Mylène Freeman, losing just short of 20% of his 2008 vote. I don't know much about Mario, except that he is a Bloc member and was Transport critic for awhile. Normally that's not enough to get me in a tiff, but he's a bloquiste, so why not.

Good decision, bad decision? I don't really know, though I'm suspect of all these sovereigntists that sign up with Legault. I'm ever more sure that this is simply a split in the sovereigntist movement, more than anything else. Obvious to many, maybe, but I'm not from Québec so give me a break.

Anyways, Argenteuil is likely to stay in the Liberal column this go around, barring any major developments. Former député David Whissell won just short of 50% in 2008, while the péquiste candidate snagged 33.6% and the ADQ candidate managed 11.2%. In 2007, the ADQ actually came in second with 29.7%, but still fell short against the Liberals by about 8%.

According to my projection, the Liberals currently lead, with the péquistes not far behind, but given that both parties are below their 2008 levels, they're hitting the low-30's.

Québec Projection Model - Argenteuil:
Parti libéral: 35.5% (-14.1%)
Parti québécois: 30.3% (-3.3%)
Coalition avenir: 23.3% (+12.2%)
Parti vert: 6.8% (+3.3%)

Québec solidaire: 4.1% (+2.0%)

2 comments:

  1. Considering 49% of Quebeckers voted Oui, putting some kind of cordon sanitaire around anyone in the sovereigntist movement is quite silly indeed. Dion was a seppie back in 1980. So what if some Bloc MP is running for the CAQ.

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    1. It matters given that it's following a long line of separatists-becoming-caquistes. That could have electoral implications.

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