Monday, May 14, 2012

BC NDP hit 50% Support

In a very clear sign that Adrian Dix and the BC New Democrats have major momentum, Angus Reid has put out a poll showing the NDP sitting at 50% support in the poll.

Angus Reid (British Columbia - May 5-7th, 2012)
BC New Democrats: 50% (+7%) - 74 seats
BC Conservatives: 19% (-4%) - 6 seats
BC Liberal Party: 23% (=) - 3 seats
BC Green Party: 6% (-2%) - 0 seats

And that's not good for the BC Liberals, who at only 23%, can't keep enough of their vote in a general swing to maintain a healthy seat count. The BC Conservatives, on the other hand, could win six seats. Overall the tide is definitively orange.

The problem for the Liberals is now two-fold: the NDP can now legitimately say they outnumber the "free market coalition," which was the Liberal's main selling point to get Conservative voters on their side. That argument is now taken away from them.

Secondly, so long as the Conservatives maintain above 16% support in the polls, and the Liberals remain below 25%, it is very likely that the BC Liberals will become the third party in the legislature. That's just how it is; the Conservative vote is much more likely to be concentrated in the core Interior regions it's supposed to be strong in, while the Liberals fall prey to their province-wide support levels, even though they could maintain a healthy concentration of votes in the Vancouver area, if it weren't for the hilarious NDP lead there (49% to 26%), and province wide.

3 comments:

  1. Clark is trying to win back Conservative voters by proposing things like Senate elections.

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  2. Was this an online poll? Likely when all the NDP are sitting at their computers 24/7 like vulchars. Kind of reminds me of the Harper Propaganda trolls war room.

    I might add those with short memories who seen the NDP nearly bankrupt BC and chase businesses out of BC.

    There are many BC residents who have not forgotten and many do not have computers too vote online.

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    Replies
    1. The problem, Marie, is that while AR's poll is online, the other polls showing the NDP inching up towards 50% are not. So as much as I wish it was down to Dippers flooding the lines, it really isn't.

      Besides, AR has *some* bias towards the NDP but not so much that it will skew results this badly. They do a very good job of weighting and surveying, and there's more than enough computers in BC that you can get a proper sampling no problem.

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