Angus Reid (Federal - May 22-23, 2012)
Conservatives: 37% - 154 seats
New Democrats: 33% - 112 seats
Liberal Party: 18% - 34 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 7% - 7 seatsGreen Party: 4% - 1 seat
At this level, the Conservatives would be assured of retaining government. In this poll, the Conservatives have a 10-point lead in Ontario, a small 1-point lead but still above 40% in BC, and wiping out the NDP in Alberta and the Prairies, though in the latter case, with the Liberals at 21% in the region, there's clearly some small-sample problems going on.
One thing I've noticed, however... where is the Mulcair-mania in Quebec?
Don't get me wrong, 40-45% in Quebec is an amazing level for the New Democrats in the province, and that is where Mulcair has middled around for the past while. I'm not trying to move the goalposts here.
But at the same time, Layton got 42.9% in the province, at a point where his party never led in the polls nationwide. Mulcair's NDP has, for several polls now, yet there have only been one or two polls, very disparate, that show the NDP above 45% in la belle province.
Why is this? Does the NDP have a cap at roughly 45% of the vote in the province? The Bloc Quebecois has held it's vote fairly well around the 25-30% mark, and the Conservatives are inching upwards towards 18-20% in quite a number of polls. That takes up a lot of room in Quebec, especially in certain regions. Did Jack expand his party out as much as it could, or is Mulcair's leadership not enough to get them past the 2011 mark in any significant way? Questions to be answered, me thinks.
Or, alternatively, I could be reading into nothing. It's only been, what, two months since Mulcair's ascension? And the next election is still years away. Judge for yourselves, I suppose.