Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Abacus Poll: 37% Con, 35% NDP, 17% Lib

Sorry for my absence the last few days, but work and other things took over a small portion of my life.

Abacus Data is now out with a new poll that shows eerily similar numbers to the Ipsos Reid poll of last week, a bit of a surprise considering the nature of online polls (which Abacus is) usually giving the NDP a bit of a boost:

Abacus Data (Federal - May 15-16th, 2012)
Conservatives: 37% - 152 seats
New Democrats: 35% - 120 seats
Liberal Party: 17% - 31 seats
Bloc Québécois: 5% - 4 seats
Green Party: 4% - 1 seat

The main difference between this Abacus poll and the Ipsos Reid poll is the fact that the Liberals are lower, and the West is almost a wasteland for the Opposition, except in BC where the NDP lead 41% to 40%. Thus the Conservatives still command a near-majority.

The other important trend of this poll is, of course, Ontario, where the Cons barely lead with 38% to the NDP's 35%, and the Liberal's 22%. This is a trend reflected in every major pollster for the past month and a half. Ontario is now a clear Con-NDP fight, however the advantage is still to the Conservatives, as their vote is way more efficient in rural Ontario than any other party, and the NDP still have to deal with the Liberals in urban areas where the former isn't strong, and the latter at 22% can still make a play (think Mississauga/suburban Toronto).

This circles back around to the whole issue over whether Mulcair's comments hurt the NDP's chances. Well... if you take this one poll, it's a mixed bag, isn't it. Increased support in Ontario, but low levels of support in the Prairies and Alberta, and very likely in rural BC as well, could mean the ragging on about "Dutch disease" - no matter how wrong he is, and yes, he is wrong - is whittling down the base out West.

Worth it? We'll see. But it's definitely a dangerous game your playing when, arguably, Stephen Harper's Conservatives are less regionalistic than you are (well, think back to the 2006 election anyways).

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