Friday, April 27, 2012

Your Morning Nanos: 34.7% Con, 32.4% NDP

Short post this morning covering the much-balked Nanos poll, which I find less reliable provincially, but they're following the trend (most of the time) federally, so let's go over it shall we:

Nanos Research (Canada - April 13th to 18th)
Conservatives: 34.7% (-1.0) - 123 seats
New Democrats: 32.4% (+7.4) - 115 seats
Liberals: 23.3% (-6.2) - 69 seats
Greens: 4.2% (+0.8) - 1 seat
Bloc Quebecois: 3.9% (-1.0) (16.4% in Quebec, -4.5)

Pretty standard, though Ontario is trending more and more towards a Con-NDP fight, with the Liberals as a strong third. Current numbers are 36.9% Con to 29.3% NDP, and 27.7% Liberal. Leads to a 50-26-30 split. But this is good for the Dippers - generally the higher the Liberal vote, the lower the Con vote, and the more pickup opportunities for the NDP.

Overall, while you can dispute the Nanos numbers a bit, we're seeing a trend developing in favour of Mulcair - but not quite. He's sort-of tied with the Conservatives in all recent polls, a very good thing, and they're also up majorly in Quebec. But at the same time, a government this damaged, and a third party as tipsy as the Liberals.... well I think they should be doing better, is all. Maybe I have high standards, but there it is.

For the Liberals, we're getting regulated to a consistent third place again - but revel in joy that we're not polling below 20% anymore. I think the Liberals could be an effective third party for awhile, so long as we maintain a strong vote. So far, we are.

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