Friday, April 27, 2012

Your Late-Afternoon Forum Poll: 36% NDP, 33% Con

Now, that's a lead, not that piddly Léger Marketing one from before. The New Democrats lead the Conservatives by 3-points, hit their highest in decades, and... yes, yes they form a government (not a majority). This calls for a graphic!

In all honesty, it's not the most stylish poll ever. The NDP still lag behind in Ontario, and while the Quebec numbers are more impressive than the Turmel-era numbers, they're exactly what 2011 brought the NDP, plus or minus a few points. What's up with that?

Ontario is the most interesting province, to be honest. The New Democrats really only challenge the Conservatives in Southwestern Ontario, where the race is 41% Con to 35% NDP. In this area, you find the NDP have good strength in urban areas (they control Hamilton, Windsor, and are close in London), but also the rural ridings. Being behind the Conservatives as they are, they don't take over any of those rural ridings yet (with the exception of Essex), but the races are clearly Con-NDP. Ridings like Chathan-Kent-Essex (47% Con, 32% NDP), Oxford (52% Con, 32% NDP), and Sarnia-Lambton (45% Con, 36% NDP).

But once you get out of Southwestern Ontario, the NDP as the "main alternative" in rural ridings becomes less and less common, except in northern Ontario. Instead, you usually get some large Con numbers, the NDP between 25-30%, and the Liberals not too far behind.

Urban ridings is a mixed bag, however, and I want to present this map of the GTA:

What a mess! This is pretty accurate of all urban regions, however: the Liberals and NDP battle for the core ridings, while the Conservatives and the Liberals battle for the suburbs (exception being Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

1 comment:

  1. You can use my maps if you want, the map you used has an inaccurate scale making oak-ridges markham look funky