Thursday, April 12, 2012

Yet ANOTHER Poll, This Time Ontario - 34% PC, 31% NDP, 29% Liberal

However I can't confirm the numbers 100% since its hearsay from Ontario News Watch, but they say its an Angus Reid poll and it shows the Ontario Liberals in third place.

Angus Reid (Ontario):
Prog Cons: 34% - 46 seats
New Dems: 31% - 32 seats
Ont. Liberals: 29% - 29 seats
Greens: 3-6% (not given)

Some dude at "G.P. Murray Research" claims that the PCs would have 53 seats, the NDP 28, and the Liberals 26. Entirely possible but I like my projection better.

This is a big, flashing warning sign for the McGuinty Liberals, but I'm unsure of how much of a warning sign it is. The problem being that, if we went for a campaign, neither Hudak nor Horwath have changed their tactics from October. I don't see those two as effective campaigners, though I mean, how many lives does McGuinty have? All it takes is enough voter anger and we really could end up third, and there is plenty of that out there.

But, how many Ontarians do you really think want an election? Barely six months after the last one? If the NDP forced an election, I could easily see some backlash.

Good news for the NDP though - this is the first time they've been second since at least 2003, more likely since 1995.

However, McGuinty is clearly not doing too well. It's a shame too, given that the Liberal budget is the budget Ontario needs. I now understand Conservatives when they said the minority years were hell - I don't want to pander to those nutters in the NDP.

10 comments:

  1. The NDP is way up and that's what is important. An election now with everyone running on last elections strategy results in an Ontario NDP government.

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  2. Wow, the NDP is riding high. Does that have anything to do with the federal leadership campaign?

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    1. It could be, however, Mulcair isn't very popular in Ontario as of right now, so I'm going to say no.

      I think its a mix of hatred for McGuinty and Angus Reid's bias for the NDP.

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    2. but it could be the coverage that the NDP got in the process. I know that with our neighbors to the south, there is almost always a convention bounce. Maybe we have something like that here.

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    3. You are right on that point, and it's possible, it's just I haven't seen a similar trend federally, at least not one that's noticeable. But the convention-bounce would make sense.

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  3. So it begs the question - what if there were an election and the seats turned out as this poll suggests? Given the budget before the public at the moment we would surely see an alliance between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberals have said "let's cut" and the Conservatives have said "let's cut more!"

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    1. Yeah unless the NDP wins a majority, the fact of the matter is that the Liberals will more than likely back any PC budget, with amendments of course.

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  4. Or I think, considering the flexibility a parliamentary democracy affords. this scenario is possible, though perhaps not likely politically.

    The government does not resign but announces that the NDP Caucus is joining the government and Andrea Horwath is replacing McGuinty as Premier, and of course a New Democrat becomes Finance Minister. As long as they survive a confidence vote all is constitutionally valid.

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    1. Haha interesting theory but it'll never happen in a million years, especially not with both main positions taken over by the NDP.

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  5. The NDP bounce is due to federal factors. People are considering the NDP. This is something they did not do last election, which is why parties will need a new strategy, otherwise the NDP will do what they did federally, and sneak up the middle while Grits and Tories are focusing on one another.

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