Angus Reid (Ontario):
Prog Cons: 34% - 46 seats
New Dems: 31% - 32 seats
Ont. Liberals: 29% - 29 seats
Greens: 3-6% (not given)
Some dude at "G.P. Murray Research" claims that the PCs would have 53 seats, the NDP 28, and the Liberals 26. Entirely possible but I like my projection better.
This is a big, flashing warning sign for the McGuinty Liberals, but I'm unsure of how much of a warning sign it is. The problem being that, if we went for a campaign, neither Hudak nor Horwath have changed their tactics from October. I don't see those two as effective campaigners, though I mean, how many lives does McGuinty have? All it takes is enough voter anger and we really could end up third, and there is plenty of that out there.
But, how many Ontarians do you really think want an election? Barely six months after the last one? If the NDP forced an election, I could easily see some backlash.
Good news for the NDP though - this is the first time they've been second since at least 2003, more likely since 1995.
However, McGuinty is clearly not doing too well. It's a shame too, given that the Liberal budget is the budget Ontario needs. I now understand Conservatives when they said the minority years were hell - I don't want to pander to those nutters in the NDP.