Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Redford Back in the Game? #AbVote Poll - 35.5% Wildrose, 34.2% PC

It wasn't even a week between the days the poll were conducted, but Leger Marketing's poll of Albertan voting intentions this week shows a crazy drop for the Wildrosers from last week. I didn't cover that poll (though I added it to my main projection), but I'll include the differences anyways.

Leger Marketing:
Prog Cons: 34.2% (+0.3) - 41 seats (+10)
Wildrose: 35.5% (-5.8) - 38 seats (-13)
New Dems: 13.2% (+1.5) - 8 seats (+3)
Liberals: 12.5% (+3.0)
Alberta Party: 2.7% (+0.5)

It's very hard to attribute the Wildroser drop to the PCs, because they aren't doing much better - instead the three left-of-center parties, and especially the Liberals (who were at 9.5% in the last Leger poll) benefit from the massive drop for Danielle Smith's party. So that means either left-of-center or centrist voters who parked with the Wildrosers out of convenience (to get rid of the PCs, basically, regardless of the party's ideology) have been spooked by the talk of "conscience rights" and abortion and so on; or Leger's last poll underestimated the support levels for the center-left. If it's the latter, it's odd the Wildrosers suffer, and not the PCs, who in most other polls are around 30%, not 33-35%.

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