Tuesday, April 24, 2012

PQ in Trouble Again While NDP Rides High

CROP has a new poll out in Quebec which is showing the horse race in la belle province is once again a three-way, with the Parti québécois feeling the brunt of a 6-point drop from their last poll:

CROP (Québec - April 23, 2012)
Parti libéral: 30% (=) - 53 députés
Parti québécois: 28% (-6) - 53 députés
Coalition Avenir: 25% (+1) - 17 députés
Québec solidaire: 8% (+3) - 2 députés
Parti vert: 7% (+2)
Option nationale: 1% (=)

The drop has benefitted the QS and the PVQ the most, apparently, with the CAQ gaining one point to 25%.

And once again, the Liberals benefit the most because of their relatively static position around 30%. There was a time they suffered at 25% and below - however it appears that people are sticking to the federalist party. My guess is because of concerns over François Legault himself, as well as the two other parties not being the greatest alternatives ever.

However it's not exactly roses for Jean Charest. An amazing 73% of respondents disapprove of the government's direction. His party maintains leads among non-francophones (69%) and Montréalers (34%), but the rest of the province is a wasteland. Amazingly the CAQ had 40% of Québec City voters.

Moving on to the federal scene, we see the Nouveau parti démocratique riding a wave with Thomas (in Québec) Mulcair at the helm.

CROP (Québec federal - April 23, 2012)
Nouveau démocratique: 51% - 65 députés
Parti libéral du Canada: 15% - 6 députés
Parti conservateur: 13% - 3 députés
Bloc Québécois: 18% - 1 député
Parti vert du Canada: 3%

It's definitely a good result for the NDP, who under Turmel definitely suffered. With 65 seats the NDP are laughing, though they lag behind the Liberals among non-francophones (38% to 33%). Still, it's a very impressive number overall though, to be sure.

Mulcair also is the most popular choice for Prime Minister (41%), while nearly 70% of respondents dislike the way the federal government is going. The fact that independence is at less that 40% of the vote, with an unpopular federalist provincial government and an unpopular federal government overall, is a testament to the fact that Quebec independence is essentially on life support - but things can change.


  1. wow, Mulcair is doing really well. He is exceeding my expectations in the polls.

    How low the Conservatives support has to go before they get wiped off in quebec?

    1. Below 9% is roughly when they run out of steam in the province, they're really well entrenched in certain areas.

  2. An NDP at 60% in Quebec could carry every single seat. (Depending on how the other parties splits