Thursday, April 19, 2012

UPDATED: Ont. Liberals in Big Trouble

Remember that Angus Reid poll that put the Liberals in third place in Ontario, and I said that we'd need to wait to see if any other polls confirmed it? Yes? Well two polls from Environics and Forum Research have come out spelling possible doom for the McGuinty Liberals.

Environics (Ontario - April 10-13th):
Prog Cons: 37% - 57 seats
New Dems: 30% - 31 seats
Ont. Liberals: 27% - 18 seats
Greens: 6%

This is the more dangerous poll for the Liberals, simply because it offers the PCs a majority government. At 27% of the vote, the Liberals are confined to ridings around Toronto and urban ridings - no rural ridings stick with the Liberals. Rural Ontario is dominated by the PCs. The NDP win scattered ridings throughout the GTA and Ontario, but enough to come to 30ish seats.

Forum Research (Ontario - April 17th)
Prog Cons: 34% - 48 seats
New Dems: 31% - 32 seats
Ont. Liberals: 28% - 27 seats
Greens: 5%

This Forum poll is slightly better, and overall shows little change from their 34-30-30 poll at the end of March. It'd lead to a PC minority and another close race for third, at these levels it's possible the Liberals could end up as Official Opposition with just a few hundred displaced votes.

Why is this? Mostly it has to do with the recent budget and how well its going over with Ontarians, plus the simple fact that McGuinty isn't very popular. Note that Andrea Horwath, the NDP leader, has an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rate of 30%, compared to 27%-60% for McGuinty, and 24%-54% for Hudak. However this has been the order of things since the new year.

Good news is that most Liberals (77%) back McGuinty, as well as most Dippers backing Horwath (73%). However, Hudak only earns 54% approval from supporters of his party.

Other good news is that 60% of respondents don't want an election, compared to 34% who do. Only the PCs seem split on that question.

Oddly enough though, people are split on whether the NDP should vote for the budget or not. 54% of NDPers want the caucus to vote against the budget. Maybe they don't understand, failure to pass budget = election. Kind of inconsistent.

If we break down votes further, things get a little odd. For example, the NDP leading in the 905 region, but trailing in third behind the Liberals and PCs within the City of Toronto itself. Or the NDP with 33% of the vote of those making over $100K, aka the people they want to tax more, tied with the Liberals. Funny regionals lead to a funny seat projection from Forum of 43 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the PCs, and 23 for the NDP. There's oodles of other information there, might as well check it out if you're interested, just don't expect it all to make sense.

Finally, Forum polled federal party preferences, and it shows the federal Cons on 36%, compared to 32% for the NDP and 24% for the Liberals. This would lead to a 56-28-22 split.

***UPDATE***

The Globe and  Mail is reporting on a Nanos poll which apparently shows the Liberals at 35% support, the PCs at 32%, and the NDP at 26%. I can't find the direct numbers for it, so I don't know all the details, but the topline numbers would fly in the face of the currently-developing trend. However, apparently it does confirm Hudak's third-place numbers in terms of leadership popularity.

2 comments:

  1. Relax. You don't think the NDP want neocons running the province when the NDP hold the balance of power now, do you?

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  2. I do think they have enough ambition to say they'll win an election, and then lose to the PCs, plunging us into the next Dark Age.

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