Thursday, April 19, 2012

New Brunswick Projection

Volkov did some interesting things with the numbers from the recent Saint John poll in New Brunswick. I've been able to expand those numbers out to the entire province using the same process that we use to turn province-wide numbers into riding numbers, only, in reverse. The poll shows a Liberal lead province-wide. The most recent CRA poll however shows the Tories leading.

I applied the NDP numbers VS the Tories in the Saint John poll, and, the NDP numbers VS the Liberals in the CRA poll. This gives the NDP a somewhat artificially strong showing. I then roughly averaged the Liberal and PC numbers between the two polls and ended up with the following as my result.

The Liberals would have a 2 point popular vote lead, but would win 5 ridings against the PC party by extremely narrow margins, where as the PC Party would only win 3 ridings by narrow margins over the Liberals. The "problem" for the Liberals is that where the NDP wins, it is almost always the Liberal Party placing second, meaning those votes are "wasted".

What is interesting is where the NDP does well. There is a cluster in the north east, a very Acadian part of the province, and where Yvon Godin, the NDP's NB MP hails from. The second cluster is in the more urban area of the province near Fredericton and Saint John, but also in the rural area connecting the two. The NDP fails to perform in Moncton, the bi-lingual area of the province, and in other rural areas. This could present a potential problem for the NDP if the two "sides" become divided for any particular reason. The Liberals, however, who have traditionally done better in Acadian areas than English areas have had traditionally divided caucuses as well, and this has never caused problems for that party.


  1. To head off the "what are those 5 and 3 ridings" question, here is the answer:

  2. The NDP did well federally in Moncton, so it should not be discounted in a strong NDP showing in NB.