Thursday, April 19, 2012

NDP Leading in New Brunswick, 39% to 33%!??

Well not quite, but I enjoy the shock value.

The poll is actually of New Brunswick, but only part of it. The City of Saint John has apparently trended quite well for the NDP provincially, and are now leading 39% to 33% for the PCs, and 28% for the Liberals.

Now, again, this is provincially. The provincial NDP is quite a bit weaker than their federal cousin, winning only 10% of the vote in the 2010 election, and no seats. But Saint John has always been one of their stronger areas, winning 16.8% of the vote in the four core ridings that make up the city - Saint John East, Saint John Harbour, Saint John Lancaster, and Saint John Portland. (Saint John Fundy also contains part of the city, but extends along the coast.)

Now, imagine that 16.8% jumping up to 39%, and you get something like this:

An exact split, but those two seats would be the largest NDP caucus in New Brunswick ever, if it were the case. The poorer, NDP-friendlier areas go for the NDP, while the richer, middle class areas stay a PC-Lib fight. Makes sense.

Is it real? Well, this poll was conducted at the beginning of April/end of March. There was a CRA poll at the beginning of March, showing the NDP sitting at 22%, or about a 120% increase. That's absolutely in line with this region-specific poll, which could mean the NDP are on the march in New Brunswick - at least in the Saint John area.


  1. The NDP is NOT leading in NB, they are only leading in Saint John, and that is not surprising or shocking at all.

  2. Expanded out to the entire province, this poll has the Liberals at 37%, the Tories at 34% and the NDP at 26%