Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Innovate Research's Now-Late Interesting Poll on the NDP Leadership Race

Just today an in-depth poll from Innovative Research on voting intentions in Canada and opinions of the NDP leadership race, as well as something called the "Tory Universe" and other stuff, was put up, dated from March 21st.

While this poll is a bit dated now, it's still interesting, and while the national vote intentions are suspect (25% for the Greens in the Prairies? Lol), overall it's still an interesting poll. Give the whole thing a lookover, but here's some of the highlights:

Who was paying attention to the NDP leadership race?

4% - Very Closely
26% - Somewhat Closely
41% - Not Very Closely
26% - Not at all

That right there explains a lot of the NDP's problems since Jack's death. No one really cares about them. That only 30% bothered to pay attention (though 41% apparently "followed" according to Innovative's graph, but these are their numbers, so I don't know...), when this is supposed to be the most exciting time ever in Canadian political history or something... yeah. It's no wonder they failed to make headway under Turmel, and we'll see what happens after Mulcair's honeymoon.

Favourable/Unfavourable for the NDP Leadership candidates

Thomas Mulcair - (68% recognition) 38% favourable, 29% unfavourable
Brian Topp - (58% recognition) 29% favourable, 21% unfavourable
Nathan Cullen - (43% recognition) 33% favourable, 14% unfavourable
Peggy Nash - (56% recognition) 39% favourable, 18% unfavourable
Paul Dewar - (52% recognition) 29% favourable, 17% unfavourable
Martin Singh - (43% recognition) 12% favourable, 21% unfavourable
Niki Ashton - (41% recognition) 22% favourable, 17% unfavourable


I always like favourable/unfavourables, because they sometimes tell you more about the candidate than regular old polling ever can. In this case, I converted the favourables/unfavourables as percentages of those who actually say they recognized the names, and ordered them as they were during the race itself.

First things become obvious - Mulcair, with the highest name recognition, has the second-highest favourables and highest unfavourables. However, those numbers don't necessarily translate into "polarizing candidate" - just that he would probably have hefty challenges against him. And thus, he did when all was said and done, as 43% voting against him is still relatively high.

Peggy Nash had the best gap between favourable and unfavourable (21 points), while Cullen not far behind (19 points). It's not surprising given that both Nash and Cullen were likable.

Not the same for Martin Singh, who is the only candidate to post more unfavourables than favourables. But he was a small bit player anyways.

"Spectrum questions"

If the NDP, Libs, Bloc, and Greens worked together to oust Cons -
40% agree, 38% disagree* (28% disagree strongly)

Only Libs and Cons can form the government in a two-party race -
34% agree, 46% disagree

A vote for the NDP is a wasted vote -
35% agree, 28% disagree

Ideological Leanings

30% say they're "Conservative" -
66% Cons, 24% non-Cons


37% say they're "liberals," either left or business oriented27% Cons, 54% non-Cons


32% say they're essentially left-wingers
9% Cons, 75% non-Cons

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