Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Forum Research #AbVote Poll Shows WRP Drop

However it's a small drop, and it's only one poll. It certainly doesn't rival or confirm Léger Marketing's poll a week ago showing that massive drop - we can safely say it was an outlier. However, this Forum poll could reflect the reality of a closing gap.

Forum Research (April 16th - Alberta)
Wildrosers: 40% (-3) - 50 seats
Prog Cons: 33% (+2) - 31 seats
New Dems: 12% (+1) - 6 seats
Liberals: 10% (=)
Alberta: 2% (=)

And yes, there is definitely something going on. Both post-debate polls have the PCs up slightly, and counting the Campaign Research poll the day before the debates, the PCs haven't been below 33% for almost a week now.

Does this mean the Big Blue Alberta Machine is making a comeback? Probably not, but here is a possibility I think is a very real possibility: the Wildrosers could win the lowest plurality share of votes since 1930, and if they drop below 52 seats (or 60%), and could win the lowest share of seats of any majority party since 1917.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement by Alberta standards.


  1. My opinion of the race has changed since the pro-white wildrose comments. The Tories could really come back to win this.

  2. It reminds me a lot of the 2004 federal election, where the party that had it in the bag, lost it because of a few blunders from the leadership and candidates. You're right, Smith's mistake in failing to rap Leech on the knuckles for his stupidity, let alone the comment itself, could cost her this election.

  3. Its not over yet, but one more wildroser saying something stupid, and it will be.

  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. sorry I had many spelling mistakes.

      What I was writing was that I wanted to ask you since it seems you would know, what riding(s) do you think the Liberals if they get around 10% will they be close to winning.

    2. Calgary-Mountainview, Calgary-Buffalo, and Edmonton-Riverview are the "generic" choices, as these ridings were their strongest in 2008, have the right demographics, and the right history.

      However, I'd say Mountaview, Buffalo, Edmonton-Meadowlark would be the "best" choices, since these ridings all feature strong incumbents.

  5. Depends on where the other parties are really. Give me some exact numbers and I'll give you a map!

    1. Thanks Volkov

      Riding by Riding since your offering my gut says the race will be a bit more closer

      Wildrose 40%
      PC 37%
      NDP 12%
      Liberal 10%
      Alberta party 1%

    2. http://i1218.photobucket.com/albums/dd408/TheNewTeddy/AlbertaProvRidings4.png

  6. thank you very much Riding By Riding