Monday, April 16, 2012

CBC-RoI Poll Shows Possible Photo Finish in #AbVote

Return on Insight conducted a poll on behalf of the CBC in Alberta, showing a fairly close race (by Alberta standards) as we head into our last week of the campaign:

Return on Insight:
Wildrosers: 43% - 53 seats
Prog Cons: 36% - 31 seats
New Dems: 9% - 3 seats
Liberals: 11%
Alberta: 1%

They give regionals showing a close race in Calgary, with both the Tories and the PCs above 40% in the city; the Wildrosers leading by 6% in Edmonton; and Smith's party with a very large lead in the rest of Alberta.

And yes, it is post-debate, so here's our first indication that maybe the debate moved some numbers to Redford, seeing as how this poll is her party's best poll in a long time. But it may not be enough as the Wildrosers keep a good lead, sitting around 40-45%.

The Liberals and the NDP are at a loss, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that the NDP could see another 2008 repeat in terms of their popular support. The Liberals, who despite pulling out their clock, are really struggling. Even their best incumbents are in trouble.


  1. Interesting how the exact same poll can make some people think it's neck and neck and others think it's all over.

    I fall into the latter camp.

  2. I think its probably over, but there are leanings of momentum for Redford. It could be a photo finish.

  3. could be, but we need another 2 days to see a trend. If the gap is 5 or less in at least 2 polls over the next 3 days, and, a poll is put out on the 3rd or 4th day showing the gap at 4 or less, then the trend would be strong enough for the Tories to win.

  4. I got a call on my cell phone last night from Abingdon Research looking for voting preferences in the election, so expect to hear something from them as well within the next couple of days.

  5. Cool, thanks for the update Robert.

    Gotta ask - who did you support?

  6. "Press 4 for Wildrose" - I may have been too young to vote in the last election, but as a conservative I have despised the PCs for some time now. The winds of change are blowing outside as I write this, and I am looking forward to watching the election results on the 23rd.