Friday, April 13, 2012

Campaign Research #AbVote Poll - 42.8% WRP, 34.4% PC

This poll is likely the last pre-debate poll, so we should mark the occasion now. It also highlights a growing trend in the race: marginalization of the Liberals and NDP in favour of the PCs.

Campaign Research:
Wildrosers: 42.8% (-2.7) - 53 seats (-18)
Prog Cons: 34.4% (+6.0) - 30 seats (+18)
New Dems: 9.7% (-0.5) - 4 seats (=)
Liberals: 9.6% (-1.7)

Both the centre-left parties, as well as the Alberta Party which isn't usually mentioned, are facing a bigger squeeze as more and more are getting concerned about the Wildrose sweep. That means it's entirely possible we could see both parties shunted into oblivion - the Liberals themselves are fairly close to it already.

But the debate happened just last night, and we'll see if it changes anything. Personally, I can't pick out any part where any leader really faltered, all four had a good debate. The problem though is that the fight is clearly between the Redford PCs and Smith's Wildrosers. Brian Mason tried very hard and even succeeded at contrasting himself from the two conservatives, while Raj Sherman went after Redford's jugular several times, clearly trying to present himself as the "centrist option," the PCs just faking it. Problem is, these two leaders are almost irrelevant in the larger fight.

Just to mark the occasion, here's where I'm currently projecting the race:


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