Friday, April 20, 2012

BC Liberals Sort-of Survive

Last night saw two by-elections in British Columbia occur and despite the predictions of some media, some bloggers, and myself, the BC Liberals actually came out of it smelling slightly better than they did before.

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini - 6,070 - 54.4%
Dennis Marsden - 3,377 - 30.2%
Christine Clarke - 1,720 - 15.4%

Gwen O'Mahoney - 5,772 - 41.2%
Laurie Throness - 4,399 - 31.4%
John Martin - 3,548 - 25.3%
Lewis Clarke Dahlby - 294 - 2.1%

Not that losing two strongholds is a good thing, but the results are better than expected, simply because the BC Liberals ended up second in both of them. The expectations were so low, in fact, that it was expected that Chilliwack-Hope would end up being a NDP-Conservative fight, and even I myself figured that the Conservatives could have had a very good shot at winning the riding.

And by most accounts, they should have. What with the recent defection giving them their first MLA in decades, and the continuing poll numbers showing them tied with the Liberals, this really should have been theirs to lose. And while, yes, Chilliwack-Hope did vote for the HST, thereby giving it some semblance of pro-government-ness, the "star candidate" quality of John Martin, plus the inherent momentum, should've really given them an edge.

Instead, they ended up third. And the rolling average for BC that I have predicted it, not my gut. For Chilliwack-Hope, my projection predicted it as 36% NDP, 35% Lib, and 23% Con, while Port Moody-Coquitlam was 43% NDP, 34% Lib, and 16% Con. Those numbers don't account for the lack of a Green candidate however, and would have given obvious edges to the NDP. Goes to show maybe I should trust my gut a little less, eh?

This gives Christy Clark's government a bit of a break. They can now point to Chilliwack-Hope and correctly say that the split between the free-enterprise parties more than likely allowed the NDP to win the seat (we may not know for sure, to be honest, anti-HST voters could've been split between the NDP and Cons). And as the party with the best track record against the NDP, the Liberals remain the best option to keep the "socialist hordes" at bay.

I think we'll see an uptick in Liberal support over the coming weeks. To mark the occasion, here's my current rolling average for British Columbia:


  1. Jesus christ on a pointed stick you sound like you *want* these crooks and imbeciles back in office, like having 5 more years of this would be good for the province.

    What planet are you from?

    Or is your partisan blinkerhood so complete you're willing to overlook any amount of malfeasance, malevolence and incompetence if the word liberal with a capital L is in sight.

    These are most assuredly NOT capital L liberals out here. There may be a few remaining in the party but they've never had the upper hand in this coalition and I doubt they want anyone to know they're still hanging on.

    These are just cheap crooks and their enablers.

    Stick to what's closer to home. Quite clearly you have no clue about BC.

    1. First off, it is partly partisan, I just like the word "Liberal," sounds nice.

      Secondly, I'm aware the BC Liberals aren't small l liberals in their make-up. I've been aware of such a fact for a long time. Christy Clark is borderline, she's certainly not conservative though.

      That really describes the BC Liberals in most ways. Borderline. And I support that over the NDP, I'm a free-enterpriser. And I believe in the ability of the BC Libs to get their act together as well.

      And yes, I have quite a clue about BC, thanks. It's my opinion though, nothing more, don't need to agree with it. Besides, I just lay out the facts above - nothing biased there, it's just reality.

    2. "Stick to what's closer to home. Quite clearly you have no clue about BC."
      No offence, but I find this attidude quite shockingly common. I had a discussion where a friend used the exact second sentence you just did, even saying "Quite clearly". It was a debate about the 2005 BC election. He was from BC. Long story short: I was right and he was wrong.

      The BC NDP is the most left-wing NDP in Canada, and it's recently elected one of it is most left-wing leaders in the party's history. The BC Conservatives meanwhile are a better home to Santorum than to even Harper. I'll take Malfeasance, Malevolence, and Incompetence over Extremism, Ideological baffelgab, and Corruption.

      Note that I say this as someone who just called for the Ontario Liberals to be crushed heavily. As someone who would happily go and vote PC on Monday in Alberta. As someone who backs Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party. As someone who backs the NDP Government in Manitoba. I stand by Volkov on this one, and it's much harder to paint me with the "ZOMFGZX0RZ HE A LIB-RUL" brush.

  2. The Bloc is polling 1.2% in a BC provincial poll? I was unaware of such such Quebec separatist opinion in BC?

    1. Heh that's what happens when you recycle models! XD