Tuesday, March 20, 2012

TorDan - What Does It All Mean!!?

So the final results of last night's by-election in Toronto-Danforth shouldn't surprise many, as Craig Scott of the NDP easily hung on, ending the night with a nearly 10,000-vote lead over his nearest rival, Grant Gordon of the Liberals.

Craig Scott - 19,210 - 59.44%
Grant Gordon - 9,215 - 28.51%
Andrew Keyes - 1,736 - 5.37%
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu - 1,517 - 4.69%
Others - 640 - 1.98%
Total - 32,318 - 43.4% Turnout

It's a rout, but as I noted yesterday, it was always expected to be. There was no real question (except from malicious Cons) that the NDP would win, it just unknown by how much.

So really, the NDP have nothing to be concerned about, and they did pick an excellent candidate for the House of Commons, so kudos to them. What about the Liberals? Where do we stand after this?

Well, we didn't do badly. We bumped our numbers up by about 10%, and even compared to 2011, we gained 800 votes, so it wasn't all down to low turnout (as no doubt someone will say). Overall, you can claim a smal victory for the Liberals, because in our current state we shouldn't be gaining anything, let alone a clear second place.

However, there is a point that the media is making, though they make it without the larger context of our increase, that we did put quite a bit of political capital into this race. Maybe capital that we shouldn't have, because its clear that for all the campaigning done by Rae, Trudeau, and others, including those Rae billboard signs, maybe we didn't do nearly as well as to exactly justify that stuff. That is, however, benefit of hindsight.


  1. Even though the Liberals didn't do spectacularly, if that 10% translated across the board in Ontario it would be enough to destroy the Tories. Obviously an election is way off but the Tories must already know that they are in trouble otherwise they wouldn't be making attack ads against Rae.

  2. Well, I have a theory about that, actually.

    I'm thinking that maybe the Cons are attacking Rae to maybe discourage him from running for the leadership, or from Liberal supporters voting for him if he does. I just get that feeling. It has the added benefit of defining Rae in the public (or, re-defining him I guess).

  3. I think the timing of the Rae smear ad was deliberately timed to influence the byelection, given Rae's involvement.

  4. All I'm certain of is that Topp should have run on the Danforth. The NDP candidate didn't need to campaign to keep the seat. Now imagine the momentum this would have given Topp going into the convention.