The big thing I did miss was the recent Nanos Research poll, showing for the second time in a row, the Liberals in second place. The topline numbers (and changes from the last Nanos poll) are as follows:
Cons: 35.7% (=)
Liberal: 29.5% (+1.9)
NDP: 25.0% (-0.2)
Bloc: 4.9% (-0.7)
Green: 3.4% (-1.1)
Other: 1.5% (+0.1)
The numbers are pretty standard for what most polls show right now, except in the usual Nanos twist, the Liberals lead in Ontario, 37.8% to the Conservative's 35.9% (Cons led with 42.5% last time). Unlike last poll however, the NDP are at a much more reasonable level (21.9%).
And in ever-important Quebec, the NDP earn just above 32%, while the Liberals sit in second with 27% and the Bloc at 20%. However, Nanos isn't alone in this high Liberal number, as Forum's Quebec-specific poll a few weeks ago had the Liberals at 26%. Of course, two polls does not a trend make.
Instead of just throwing up the breakdown of the poll, I'll throw up my current rolling average at the end of this post.
On to robocalls - it seems that elections Canada is investigating at least three ridings where there are reports of fraudulent calls directing voters supposedly identified as Opposition supporters to non-existent or incorrect polling stations. These are Guelph, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Nipissing-Timiskaming. The latter was lost by incumbent Liberal MP Anthony Rota by just 18 votes. All were expected to be tight races. All have apparently been tied to RackNine, which is currently suing Pat Martin and the NDP.
All the while we're getting prepared to release all our phone records to the public, while the Conservatives deny they've done anything wrong, and refuse to release their own records. False righteous indignation at its best.
This entire affair, if Nanos has anything to say about it, isn't affecting the Conservatives performance at all, except as a distraction from their agenda. Neither has Bill C-30, though we'll wait until more polling is done until we call it a day.
I don't know, though - is the issue starting to die down? Like all of our other Con-related scandals, they seem to rise and then drop. Yes, there are protesters, and yes, it's anti-democratic - but the prorogation issue was the same. Is this different because its outright fraud (if they're found to be responsible), or will the plurality of Canadians look at the two parties and say the Conservatives are still the better lot? In my mind, nothing substantive will come of this until after Elections Canada's investigation is completed. We're just posturing until then.
Finally, Super Tuesday is tonight!! Eleven states are voting in the Republican primary, and this really does represent Mitt Romney's last chance to move this race forward in his direction in a determined way. If he can't clinch at least 50% of the delegates tonight, then this race will be a very long one.
Some resources to look at before it starts tonight:
US Election Atlas primary polling
CNN Delegate Tracker
|Polling average - March 6th, 2012|