Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Nanos, Robocalls, and Super Tuesday

Sorry for my lack of posting the past three days - but I haven't missed much anyways.

The big thing I did miss was the recent Nanos Research poll, showing for the second time in a row, the Liberals in second place. The topline numbers (and changes from the last Nanos poll) are as follows:

Cons: 35.7% (=)
Liberal: 29.5% (+1.9)
NDP: 25.0% (-0.2)
Bloc: 4.9% (-0.7)
Green: 3.4% (-1.1)
Other: 1.5% (+0.1)

The numbers are pretty standard for what most polls show right now, except in the usual Nanos twist, the Liberals lead in Ontario, 37.8% to the Conservative's 35.9% (Cons led with 42.5% last time). Unlike last poll however, the NDP are at a much more reasonable level (21.9%).

And in ever-important Quebec, the NDP earn just above 32%, while the Liberals sit in second with 27% and the Bloc at 20%. However, Nanos isn't alone in this high Liberal number, as Forum's Quebec-specific poll a few weeks ago had the Liberals at 26%. Of course, two polls does not a trend make.

Instead of just throwing up the breakdown of the poll, I'll throw up my current rolling average at the end of this post.

On to robocalls - it seems that elections Canada is investigating at least three ridings where there are reports of fraudulent calls directing voters supposedly identified as Opposition supporters to non-existent or incorrect polling stations. These are Guelph, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Nipissing-Timiskaming. The latter was lost by incumbent Liberal MP Anthony Rota by just 18 votes. All were expected to be tight races. All have apparently been tied to RackNine, which is currently suing Pat Martin and the NDP.

All the while we're getting prepared to release all our phone records to the public, while the Conservatives deny they've done anything wrong, and refuse to release their own records. False righteous indignation at its best.

This entire affair, if Nanos has anything to say about it, isn't affecting the Conservatives performance at all, except as a distraction from their agenda. Neither has Bill C-30, though we'll wait until more polling is done until we call it a day.

I don't know, though - is the issue starting to die down? Like all of our other Con-related scandals, they seem to rise and then drop. Yes, there are protesters, and yes, it's anti-democratic - but the prorogation issue was the same. Is this different because its outright fraud (if they're found to be responsible), or will the plurality of Canadians look at the two parties and say the Conservatives are still the better lot? In my mind, nothing substantive will come of this until after Elections Canada's investigation is completed. We're just posturing until then.

Finally, Super Tuesday is tonight!! Eleven states are voting in the Republican primary, and this really does represent Mitt Romney's last chance to move this race forward in his direction in a determined way. If he can't clinch at least 50% of the delegates tonight, then this race will be a very long one.

Some resources to look at before it starts tonight:

FiveThirtyEight's predictions
US Election Atlas primary polling
CNN Delegate Tracker

Polling average - March 6th, 2012

1 comment:

  1. We could find other facts emerging much faster than the Elections Canada investigation if voters and/or candidates in the disputed ridings launched lawsuits under Canada Elections Act - but that clock is ticking with perhaps only two weeks left before the right under that Act disappears.

    That would leave lawsuits under the Charter of Rights which does not have a time deadline.

    One byproduct of lawsuits is discovery - and the right to demand the production of relevant records (things like the Tory CIMS or LPC Liberalist with their records of who made calls or had them made, to which voters, when etc) as well as individuals required to testify under oath.

    The courts are the way to find out the truth in this matter.

    Thank heavens the Council of Canadians is stepping into the breach with their offer to help voters sue; the LPC and NDP look like toothless tigers right now by comparison!

    Our democracy is in peril and we see no meaningful action from our two major opposition parties!

    Unreal. This is the way dictatorships creep into power ...