Saturday, March 24, 2012

Mind. Blown. Sort of. #NDPldr

Mulcair ended up first, and Topp ended up second; that was, sort of, expected. It was either going to be Topp or Nash in second.

But no, Nash is fourth! Behind Cullen! That was surprising. Dewar didn't even manage 10%, so much for "grassroots"....

I don't get the feeling that Cullen will make it beyond third, but we'll see... it's all down to whether Topp can consolidate the "traditionalist" vote. Will Nash and Dewar supporters support Topp? Where will Cullen's supporters go once he's eliminated?

Second ballot will tell all. Nash is still in but won't be on the third. That's where this will be decided - the third ballot.

Oh yeah, and first ballot turnout? 65,108 - just below 50%. BOOYA!! I called it. Low turnout! It could increase on the next ballots - I'm sure it actually will - but I called it, mo'fo's. Whose your daddy?

6 comments:

  1. The results surprised me. I thought Mulcair, Nash, and Dewar would be higher, and Topp lower.

    Oh yeah, and first ballot turnout? 65,108 - just below 50%.

    People may jump in on the second ballot, but it blows my mind that during the 2004 Conservative leadership race, 67,143 voted for Stepehen Harper (97,397 voted in total). So more party members voted for Harper than in the entire NDP race so far. Did the shorter Conservative race help with turnout? Did the money help? The fact that there were fewer candidates and a more stark difference between them -- Harper vs. Stronach? Did people simply feel more inspired? (And by Harper?) And being partisan, what do the Liberals need to do to avoid something like this?

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    1. Did weighing the ridings help? (Conservatives weigh, NDP do not.)

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  2. Questions I'll have to answer later, Sharon, but all very good ones. Something definitely to ponder...

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  3. I knew Cullen would do well and expected him to be Second. What surprises me is Topp's numbers and Dewar's numbers. To be honest, if you had reversed the two, I would not have been surprised at all.

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  4. If I'm doing the math right, if 33,881 is 57%, then there were about 59,440 ballots cast in the third round. In 2003, according to the wikipedia page, there were 58,202 votes -- so 1238 votes more in 2011.

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    Replies
    1. Grand total turns out to be 59,210 (33,881 for Mulcair and 25,329 for Topp), so just 1008 more votes than in 2003.

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