Monday, March 26, 2012

Ipsos Reid Poll of #AbVote - 38% PC, 38% WRP

Ipsos Reid released their first poll of Alberta since before the last election in 2008, showing a very outlier result compared to other pollsters, specifically on the position of the Wildrose Party of Danielle Smith. Here it is below:

PC - 38% - 47 seats
WRP - 38% - 35 seats
NDP - 12% - 5 seats
Lib - 11% - 0 seats

This poll shows the highest result for the Wildrosers since February 2010, and obviously shows a very close race. At 47 seats, Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives only have three seats above majority threshold (44 seats), a smaller majority than the 1993 "close call" election of Ralph Klein over the Decore Liberals.

That's pretty crazy right there. Is it reality, or is it an outlier? Only more polls will tell. My projection is updated.

2 comments:

  1. A CTV poll released today shows virtually the same thing:

    http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120326/CGY_election_poll_120326/20120326/?hub=CalgaryHome

    It was your polls that show massive PC support that were the outliers.

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  2. By definition they were the trend, actually. But thanks for the link.

    ReplyDelete