Friday, March 9, 2012

Forum Research - 37-28-25

If you need further proof that the robocalls scandal has either not hit its full stride yet, or has failed to capture the imagination of voters as a "true" scandal (despite its severity), you need not look further than Forum Research's latest poll (changes from last Forum poll):

Con: 37% (+1)
NDP: 28% (=)
Liberal: 25% (-1)
Bloc: 5% (-1)
Green: 4% (+1)

 Seat totals are 143 Con, 76 NDP, 73 Liberal, 15 Bloc, 1 Green. A near-tie for OffOpp, lovely.

I do get it, but at the same time, I don't. It's clear that this robocall thing is big, but its also under the radar enough, and not so related to today's major issues (economy, debt, healthcare), add on to the fact that there is no clear line drawn yet (or at least, the case hasn't been made as effectively as it should be), I can see why it escapes the attention of most voters. But then switch back to that recent Angus Reid poll, and its clear most Canadians don't approve, including a healthy minority of Conservative voters, about 30%. So what the hell is this?

Because I refuse to pay for a subscription, just take a look here at 308.com's write-up to see the regionals. The truly interesting province is, as always, Quebec, where Forum agrees with Nanos' high placing of the Liberals. The NDP are still below 30%, and all polls agree they're just over or under that.

Of course, following another Forum poll, it switches around. With Mulcair, the NDP would get 40% in Quebec; 18% under Peggy Nash; and 20% under Brian Topp. Pretty clear who's the best choice there, at least right out of the gate.

Don't get too excited, though - the Liberals are struggling in Ontario, according to Forum, tied with the NDP at 29% a piece. Remember the days when we regularly hit 35% in Ontario and thought that was low? I do.

What's dragging us down? Could be McGuinty, could be Rae, could simply be the new order of things. But it's our party's biggest problem right now in terms of where we need to (first) rebuild. If we can't win back Ontario, the rest won't matter.

2 comments:

  1. I don't think the polls mean much at this point. A scandal like this takes months to really register with voters, as the Sponsorship scandal did.

    As for rebuilding the LPC, I really believe that their fall in places like Ontario is not just the Liberal Brand per se, but a structural issue. Over the past few years an increasing number of people are genuinely concerned about the path of capitalism and the growing inequalities. Let's face it, whether one likes it or not, the LPC in the past decade has represented the growth of a neo-liberal economic approach. Thus, I believe many have either gone to the Tories because they basically think the LPC is a Tory Party anyway, and others have moved toward the NDP because they believe it to represent some reply to the growing inequality.

    As an outsider I honestly believe that the LPC needs to rebuild the idea of a democratic party that represents capitalism with a human face. Then it needs to be much bolder than they are being on the issues of accountability, with radical new policies, including election reforms. The Harpercons are very vulnerable in this area but so far no one (including all the NDP candidates) has emerged with real bold policy initiatives in this area.

    Even as a non-liberal I would like to see the once great Liberal Party return, but no one seems to want to step up with an invigorating and inspiring approach. Maybe the leadership race will bring new blood forward.

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  2. I hope so kirby, I really do.

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