Thursday, March 15, 2012

Forum, Nanos Polling in Ontario Battle it Out

Two polls provincially in Ontario talk about, the first one being Nanos' Research poll (they did one in November as well that didn't make the radar), and the next being Forum Research. Big, big differences in these polls. More than what's normal, anyways.

Let's start with Nanos, which gives the Liberals a good mark (with changes from their last poll):

Liberal: 39.9% (+0.8)
PC: 30.0% (-4.5)
NDP: 24.7% (+3.1)
Green: 4.3% (+0.8)

Pretty simple, and an easy Liberal majority which I'll show below, side-by-side with Forum's poll, which is up next.

PC: 40% (-1)
Liberal: 28% (-5)
NDP: 23% (+3)
Green: 8% (+4)

I'd like to point out now, Forum's Green numbers are two-times more than any other pollster since the October election. Keep that in mind.

In terms of the difference in seats, it's pretty crazy:

The far-right bar is my current rolling average, which hasn't really changed much from the October election.

But with Nanos' hand, we have a massive Liberal majority; with Forum's, we have a massive PC majority and the Liberals in third place.

That's more than just your usual discrepancy. Which one is correct? There's always hints about Nanos giving the Liberals a better-than-average mark, and for the most part it's true, especially federally.

But at the same time, Forum has given some crazy numbers too that go unsupported, one BC poll and one Quebec poll in particular come to mind.

Neither is necessarily impossible to believe, because either the Liberals are popular or not right now. Either people like the Liberals moving on the deficit file - or they're tired of the scandals with continually surface.

Not sure, and given the stability so far seen at Queen's Park (it is still early, mind you), it doesn't matter a whole lot. We won't know until new polls are out anyways.

1 comment:

  1. Which is correct? Poll Averaging is always correct.