Friday, March 2, 2012

EKOS Poll Shows Little Movement

There's very little difference between the last EKOS poll and this one, despite the robocall controversy. The topline numbers (with changes from last poll) are as follows:

Con: 31.5% (+0.1)
NDP: 29.2% (-0.3)
Liberal: 21.7% (-3.1)
Bloc: 6.0% (-0.7)
Green: 8.3% (+2.2)
Other: 3.3% (+1.8)

The biggest change, therefore, has been between the Liberal numbers and the numbers of the Greens and "Others." However, given EKOS' well-known tendency to boost Green numbers, take this as you will. The seat results are 122 Con, 87 NDP, 72 Liberal, 26 Bloc, 1 Green.

Why are the NDP so low, you ask? The main answer is Quebec, where the NDP sit with only 28.3%, compared to 25% for the Bloc. While this is better than Forum's recent poll of the province (29% Bloc, 26% Liberal, 22% NDP), being below 30% is not where the NDP want to be in their best province. However, high results in ever other region, which you can see below, keep them ahead of the Liberals.

The main thing to take away from this poll is that there is very little movement so far, especially for the Conservatives.

Yes, they are below 32% of the vote, but this is EKOS polling, and they underestimate Conservative support quite a bit compared to other pollsters. Wait until Forum, Nanos, and Angus come out with their polling, and we'll see if the Conservatives (or us) are in trouble or not.

1 comment:

  1. For Ekos, if the last poll was 31.4% than we'd need to see the Tories at or below 28.4% before we can say there's been a real impact. This poll being 31.5% means 28.5% is the Ekos benchmark.

    I'll prepare my own little posting once I get together some numbers.