Monday, March 12, 2012

Death of the CAQ, Return of the PQ?

That was certainly quick.

A couple of months after François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) swallowed up the old Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ), and ended up with eight experienced members of l'Assemblée Nationale, the party has spent the last four polls from three different companies in third place, behind the traditional péquistes and les liberaux.

This also follows what was widely encouraged as PQ Leader Pauline Marois' recapture of the leadership from a swath of detractors, floor-crossers, and general mayhem. That's more than a coincidence when taking in the poll numbers, which show the PQ gaining everywhere and now leading.

The latest Léger poll, and probably the soon-to-be-out CROP poll, confirm it all. The results were 33% PQ, 28% PLQ (they never move much now), and 24% CAQ. That's good for a PQ majority of 69 seats, a PLQ opposition of 38 seats, and the CAQ with just 16 seats.

The CAQ, a supposed coalition of people tired of the sovereigntist-federalist battle, has clearly shed too much support and is in danger - and I'm guessing that either a lot of that support is sovereigntist support, since it isn't as if Marois has opened the doors to new ways of thinking. Here's a chart of my rolling projections since the last provincial election, and you'll see whats happened:

It's right now a three-way race, but the PQ has momentum. I'm unsure if Legault, still not doing much of anything, can pull his party of out a spiral though. Would he have to pander to separatists/sovereigntists to win back that support, the exact topic that his party calls for an end to?

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