Friday, March 9, 2012

Atlantic Canada Polling Yay!

The ever-intrepid Corporate Research Associates, those who do basically all the polling for the Atlantic provinces provincially, are out with their newest quarterly numbers for all four provinces. Let's start with Newfoundland and Labrador.

PC: 54% (-6)
NDP: 28% (+2)
Liberal: 18% (+5)

Not much change here, the Dunderdale PCs still dominate the scene and the NDP are aiming above themselves (they got 24% despite polling at 28-30% in the election). Meanwhile the change of leaders in the provincial Liberals, from Kevin Aylward to interim-and-declared-permanent-contestant Dwight Ball, hasn't done anything yet. Satisfaction with the gov't is always high, though down a bit. Dunderdale's own personal numbers are down 10% (48% want her as Premier now, compared to 59% before), but that's still pretty effin' good. Status-quo is going to be a recurring theme in this.

In Nova Scotia:

NDP: 44% (-1)
Liberal: 27% (+5)
PC: 25% (-4)

Again, not too much change except for a swapping of who's in second, though they replicate nearly perfectly the results of the 2009 election, so no one get their hopes up. Government satisfaction is down a bit (from 55% to 48%), and so is NDP Premier Darrell Dexter's personal rating (29% want him as Premier now, compared to 36% before), but so is Liberal Leader Stephen McNeil's. Only Jamie Ballie of the PCs is up.

In New Brunswick:

PC: 45% (=)
Liberal: 31% (+3)
NDP: 22% (-1)

David Alward's government remains happily ahead, though satisfaction declined (57% to 47%), as well as his personal rating (31% prefer him, compared to 36% before), but neither the Liberals, who don't have a leader, nor the NDP, who do, fare any better. Look at all this change in the air!

Finally, PEI:

Liberal: 50% (-3)
PC: 33% (-1)
NDP: 11% (+2)
Green: 5% (+4)

You'll notice I acknowledge the Green Party here because, unlike the others, it actually matters in PEI, as it has for two elections in a row gained the third largest share of votes, ahead of the Island New Democrats, who continuously poll far ahead of themselves (they got 3-4% of the vote in the election, polled at nearly 10%). People are still in love with Premier Ghiz's government, as satisfaction increased (59% to 63%), though his personal ratings drop from 50% to 41%. PC Leader Olive Crane gets 26% though, so, no worries.

I don't have projections for any of these provinces currently, and given the fact that barely any numbers have changed since their elections (with the exception of the New Brunswick NDP, who gained nearly 12 points), just go look up what they had last time and you'll get very similar numbers. How boring.

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