Saturday, March 31, 2012

Abacus Data Poll #AbVote - 41% WRP, 28% PC

This Abacus poll makes it the fourth poll since Ipsos Reid's 38-38 tie to produce some major momentum for the Wildrosers by placing them ahead of the PCs, and sixth overall to produce some momentum for the Wildrosers.

That means one thing: trend (basically) confirmed. The Wildrosers are on their way to either tying or beating the dynastic Progressive Conservatives, unless Alison Redford, who was looking so good for re-election just a couple of weeks ago, can salvage it. Tweeting things about Danielle Smith's family isn't the best way to start that.

Abacus Data:
Wildrose: 41% - 56 seats
Prog Cons: 28% - 17 seats
Liberals: 16% - 8 seats
New Dems: 12% - 6 seats

This is also the best poll for the Alberta Liberals since Abacus Data's last poll, which had them at 18%. It confirms my suspicions that if Raj Sherman and the ALP can keep above 15%, they will be able to keep at least half of their currently-held seats.

One thing I caution against is that despite polling just below or just above 40%, the Wildrosers haven't been able to keep that level of support for long.  If they start dipping back down towards 35% or lower, then there is a good possibility that the Redford PCs are underperforming their numbers, because static polling means stable support.

Then again, what does that say about the PCs? I would guess their floor to be at 30%. I can't see Wildrose beating them too far down either - there isn't enough hate or apathy in Alberta for the PCs to kill them off that well. If anything, we could see results similar to 1971's election, where Peter Lougheed ascended the throne:

1971 Election:
Prog. Cons: 46.4% - 49 seats
Social Credit: 41.1% - 25 seats
New Dems: 11.4% - 1 seat
Liberals: 1.0%

In this election, though Lougheed won, he didn't win by a crushingly huge margin - 5%. Given the stronger support for the Liberals this time around, who seem set to maintain at least 10% support, we could see a similar result like this. Wildrose may win the election, but the PCs could still be in the game with fairly strong support. They just have to hope they can make Alberta a competitive race between two conservative parties, which Social Credit couldn't following its defeat.

I'll update my projection by tomorrow. Suffice to say: close race.

4 comments:

  1. The PC Party has all but lost this race, especially after the Friday comments.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm starting to get that feeling as well... but you never know. I thought the NDP were going to be crushed into tiny pieces last May. That turned out great.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I can't think of any viable reason for people to go and vote PC, and if turnout is higher (how can it go lower than last time), vast majority of new voters will be there to "make a change"....it's just a matter of how big of victory it will be for WR. I live in Alberta, and I think it's a case of finally getting an alternative (other than socialist).....people will try it....can always boot them out in 4 years, right?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Every generation or so Albertans kick out one right wing party for the same party with a new name.

    ReplyDelete