Friday, March 16, 2012

25K NDP Members Voted So Far Could Signal Low Turnout

Which is a rate of about 1,500 per day, since voting opened on March 1st. It's probably fluctuated day by day, and more than likely sped up in the last week - but its still a pretty small number, which leads me to guess that there will be a low turnout.

Why do I say this? Do the math. If we continue with that standard rate of 1.5K/day for the next 7 days of voting, plus being wildly generous, about 10-15K voting on March 24th, that's roughly an extra 20-25K of voters, which brings us up to about 50,000 total.

Being more generous, if the rate is 3,000/day, that's about 20,000, plus the 10-15K, that's 30-35K. That's a total of about 60,000.

In 2003's leadership race, the turnout was 58,202. So really, the NDP's new leadership race, with their highest membership numbers ever, as the new Official Opposition, could either fall below 2003's turnout, or could surpass it, but not by much.

In order to the NDP to reach about 70% turnout - a pretty good indicator of an engaged membership, no? - they would need to have an additional 65,000 members vote between now and March 24th, including that date. Or nearly three times the number of people that have voted so far.

I dunno, I'm not saying they can't surpass my expectations, as I have no clue how voting has picked up or what members are thinking. But in a race where the vast majority of people are expected to vote before the convention, the 25K so far isn't a good sign.

Turnout of between 50-75K (which is roughly 40-60%) however, would make sense given how much of a snoozefest the leadership race has been. Not just the lack of sparks, or defining issues, but also the relative similarities between everyone on the ballot.

And, again, I think I'm being generous. Turnout could be lower if more voters don't show up soon.

3 comments:

  1. I think people are waiting for the convention to vote. This way they can make last minute changes depending on how the vote goes. I was discussing this with an NDP friend and this is what he's doing. (I know, small sample size.)

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    1. Another problem is that the NDP may have mailed the ballots out late, which may have cut back on the mail-in response rate. Just saying this because my friend got his ballot in the mail on the last day they were suppose to mail it out. (As noted before: I know, this is a small sample size.)

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    2. Out of curiousity, what are the chances of the server going down if 100,000+ people try voting at the same time?

      And ops, just saw that they extended the mail-in ballot deadline. Going to inform my friend about that.

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