This is going to be an uneventful by-election. While it is a riding poll - they're not always to be trusted - and the campaign has really only just begun (Feb 12), I'm not surprised in the least about what its showing. Toronto-Danforth is an NDP riding in an off year; it's definitely an NDP riding while they're the Official Opposition, leading consistently in polls, and the Liberals are still not up to par.
It can change, to be sure. Craig Scott isn't an exciting candidate (though neither are the others), and all it takes is one slip-up. I hope to work toward that end in my coming week off. But for now, let's call this race as it is - the NDP's to lose.