Thursday, February 16, 2012

NDP quick update by Teddy

Teddy here, with a quick update on the NDP race for leader. Looking at polls, endorsements, fundraising, I have the following numbers in my personal tracker.

Thomas Mulcair has somewhere around 30% support. The real number could be 1-in-5 (ie 6%) higher or lower

Peggy Nash, Brian Topp, Paul Dewar, and Nathan Cullen, each have about 15% support, with a 1-in-5 (3%) margin of error.

Niki Ashton and Martin Singh share a total of 10%, with a similarly sized margin of error.

From what I've been able to gather, Nash and Topp supporters are willing to back one another should one drop, with Cullen, Dewar, and Mulcair supporters being another more moderate group, willing to back one another.

The race has only 5 weeks to go, and as I read it so far, it'll be a final ballot where Mulcair beats Nash, but anything can happen with numbers this close.

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