Thursday, February 16, 2012

Forum Alberta Poll & 2012 Election Projections

Forum Research has another poll out for the Alberta provincial scene, showing a closer race than last time, with 37% PC, 30% Wildrose, 14% ALP, and 13% NDP. Note, however, that it's entirely within the margin of error of Forum's last poll, not to mention the last Abingdon Research poll, which showed very similar results. So, take it as you will - I think there's a trend developing.

In terms of seats, you'd still have a PC majority, with 56 seats for the governing hegemony; 20 seats for Danielle Smith's party; 7 seats for the NDP due to a very low number in Edmonton for the PCs; and 3 for the Alberta Liberals.

On to the important thing however - my projections for the upcoming election! They're easily accessible to the right, with the big "Alberta 2012" logo. Can't miss it.

I'll be running this throughout the election season for Alberta, using my co-author's Electomatic projection system, with a few personal tweaks. I'll be updating it as much as I can, including weekly (not per-poll, but weekly) seat-by-seat results of the current rolling average.

Eric over at 308.com is running his own projections using a new regional based model, which I suspect will work very well, but it means my projections will seem very conservative in comparison. This is because mine is not regional based for this election - simply because I feel that the Electomatic system works well enough without it. There are regions and I can tweak them, not to mention individual seats. But this is the election in which I'll see if Eric is right and regionals are worth putting in, or if this sort-of swing system works just as well without getting bogged down in the details. I had a hit-and-miss season last year, some of it due to polls, some of it just because of local swings that are hard to predict, some if because of the system itself. If Eric's proves to be more accurate than mine - and I have a lot of faith in Eric, let me say that - then I'll get back to the drawing board.

Anyways, I've got a running trendline since the March 2008 election, and a nice graphic. You can leave comments and tell me your opinion. Hope this election season goes well!

1 comment:

  1. The ElectoMatic can be very very easily updated for regional updates if Volkov asks - it would quite literally take me between 4 and 9 minutes to do so.

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