Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Angus Reid Poll of BC: 42-28-19

As this Globe and Mail article points out (with a few inaccuracies, like 28% being the "lowest" poll number for the BC Liberals since Clark took office - that's actually 23%), this Angus Reid poll isn't good news for  Premier Clark, who is now not only facing a vote split with the BC Conservatives lead by former MP John Cummins, but also the fact that NDP leader Adrian Dix now outpaces her on the "best Premier" question, and other approval/disapproval indicators.

Topline numbers, as said, are:

42% BC NDP
28% BC Liberal
19% BC Conservative
10% Green

In terms of seats, this would allow Dix a healthy majority government of 57 seats, compared to 16 seats for the Liberals and 10 for the Conservatives, plus two independents.

26% prefer Dix as Premier, compared to 22% for Clark and 8% for Cummins. In terms of approval/disapproval, it's 45/36 for Dix, 40/49 for Clark, 23/39 for Cummins.

That right there is actually good news for Clark - Cummins himself is unpopular in most respects, maybe thanks to their attempts to define him as a dangerous right-wing nutter, or just because he is a dangerous right-wing nutter. Either way, it leads to the conclusion that the BC Con vote is probably squishy, and that voters responding to these surveys are likely parking their votes with the Cons because of disenfranchisement with the Liberals. They could, however, easily come back in the right circumstances.

The biggest issues with BC voters are the economy (27% have it first in their minds) and healthcare (21%). Voters essentially trust both Clark and Dix with the economy, while Dix romps away with healthcare (33% to 20%). Take that as you will.

Something to note is the slight rise of the Green Party. From May to November, they were between 6-9%. Now they've been between 9-16%. Granted this has only been in a few polls, but it could be a sign of... something. I don't know what, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Green leader Jane Sterk isn't exactly popular, so its not her.

1 comment:

  1. I'd fall with the Greens at this point, as would many Liberal activists in the province. A lot of the federal liberals are feeling flub about the prospect of the provincial party and still hate the NDP, so...the Greens (or at least the idea of the greens)