Saturday, January 21, 2012

Two Quick Polls

The first is the somewhat talked about Forum poll which showed everyone gaining a bit after the Green collapse of the last Forum poll. Topline numbers were 35-28-25, which in the projection system gives the Conservatives 134 seats, the NDP 89, the Liberals 71, the Bloc 13, and the Greens get Lizzy May again.

The drop for the NDP comes from the fact that they're at, according to this poll, 29% in Quebec. That gives them only 32 seats, while the other parties get between 13 and 16 seats each. However, the Liberal's highish number comes from the wonky results in BC which gives them 11 seats - if you drop that down to the two they have now, the low-to-mid 60's number seems a lot more plausible.

Second poll is one done just recently in Ontario for the provincial scene, also by Forum, and we're back to the summer of Hudak Tory majorities. The topline numbers are 41% PC, 33% Liberal, 20% NDP.

However, it's a bare majority - 54 seats for the PCs, 38 for the Liberals, and 15 for the NDP. And yes, this is with the results of the October election.

The reason is because due to the failure of the PCs to break into Toronto and the Liberal entrenchment there, Hudak's party can only manage to be in contention for one seat - York Centre - and only just. That puts him at a disadvantage, so while he can win a lot of seats outside of Toronto, he won't be winning any fantastic majorities.

Even Horwath is having problems. Despite being the most-approved of leader in Ontario (40%), her party has lost some ground (MOE, but still). McGuinty (33% approval) remains in contention, because Hudak (26% approval) is very vulnerable.

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