Monday, January 16, 2012

Two Polls, Two Minorities

Two polls have come to my attention which show that the situation federally and possibly in Quebec is further deteriorating towards minority governments and three-way races.

First, in Quebec, the latest Leger Marketing poll shows that Francois Legault's CAQ has dropped from the high 30's to 33%, with the Parti Liberal du Quebec jumped to 27% and the Parti Quebecois jumped up to 25%.

While most polls resulted in a hefty CAQ majority, this one resulted in a CAQ minority. They would win 53 seats, the PLQ would win 38 seats, the PQ 30 seats, and the QS 4 seats. So arguably, that would be a similar result to the 2006-2011 minorities federally, where no parties that truly like each other can form a stable government, leading to what would be a case-by-case basis of governing.

Eric Grenier over at 308.com had it as 47-38-37-3, so at least its close to a professional!

As side notes, the PLQ dominates non-francophones with over two-thirds support, while the race among francophones is close, with the CAQ on 38% and the PQ on 31%. The PLQ, however, only managed 17%. Really, Charest is only keeping his spot in whatever Quebec's equivalent of the OLO is due to overwhelming support among non-francophones - kind of like the federal Liberals in Quebec.

Speaking of the federal Liberals, we're still in third place according to an Ekos poll out last month that somehow slipped under the radar. The numbers - and my fun new graphics - are as follows:

As you can see, it's pretty clear that the Conservatives are not going to govern if this were the situation. With 176 seats combined, the NDP and Liberals would easily outnumber the Conservatives - and that would transfer easily over to a 338-seat house as well.

The big problem I have with this is not necessarily the Dipper-Liberal numbers, but the Conservative number. True to form, Frank Graves' firm polls the Cons a heck of a lot lower than any other pollster currently does. This throws suspect upon at least their numbers, and also the Green numbers, considering they seem just a tad high.

However Ekos has a good track record following trends, and this drop, while a bit much for my tastes, is in line with the general drop of support shown by other pollsters.

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