Saturday, January 7, 2012

Quickie BC projection

Teddy here. I've been working on an updated projection table for British Columbia, using data from past provincial elections where a party has existed to the right of the BCLiberals. I'd like some feedback on the projection that I have here, in map form.



Note that I'm still trying to figure out exactly how to use federal results as a guideline. I'm curious if anyone has any input, suggestions, or ideas, so that by the time of the BC Election we can present you with the most accurate projections possible.

3 comments:

  1. I don't know how you're using federal results now, but your seat projections look off in the Okanagan at least. Kelowna - Lake Country, Westside, and Kelowna - Mission are pretty BC Liberal not going to suffer from vote splitting. Other areas you have as BCC however are likely to go NDP.

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  2. Kelowna and area have a history of strong big C Conservative support. I've not used federal numbers yet at all - I was wondering how to - but federally, the PC Party did best in this area of the province during the divided right.

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  3. I get some different results from you Teddy - but only slightly. We'll have to compare some time.

    Scott,

    I disagree - those are some of the more likely seats to suffer from vote-split or, likely, an outright Conservative takeover.

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