Sunday, January 8, 2012

Quebec a la post-2011 and Equipe Autonomiste

Here at Blunt Objects we seek to provide lovely graphics wherever possible, such as now. Here's what I've culminated so far for Quebec's rapidly changing political environment  (which now includes yet ANOTHER party, which I'll get to in a bit here).

Here's where the parties stand at right now:

You can click on the map to the right to see how crazy the CAQ wave sweeps over almost every part of the province - 10 times the current seats they have (if you include the ADQ rump).

The major area the caquistes and Francois Legault have trouble in is Montreal, the ADQ's 2007 problem area as well. They manage to win one seat on the island - Bourget, due to a funny vote split and just barely - though they are in contention to take several of the Laval ridings, as the ADQ was also during their wave in '07. The Liberals really do have a lock on both the allophone and anglophone vote in Montreal, which makes it a nearly impenetrable fortress for a somewhat-sovereigntist right-wing party like the CAQ.

However, it seems Legault is actively trying to solve that problem, shown by the attempted recruitment of former Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Lachine MP Marlene Jennings.

The CAQ claims nearly all of the north and south shore ridings around Montreal; Montégérie and Estrie; and of course, the Beauce and a good chunk of the Québec CMA. This easily cobbles together a coalition of voters that, frankly, resembles the Bloc's pattern federally before their crash.

The PQ, meanwhile, are being nicely minced down to nothingness except really the East Island. However, they face competition from Quebec Solidaire there. Really, at these levels the PQ would be lucky to win any seats at all. For the pequistes to be viable, they need to be above at least 25%, and the closer to 30% the better.

In my opinion, I may give the Liberals a bit too much credit - unfortunately, the bounce between CROP's high-20's and Leger's low-20's for the PLQ kind of throws muck into the system a bit, so they retain a bit more support than they really should (though 29% is still horrible). However, even at just 25% of the vote, they retain 25 seats. I think its safe to say that the Liberals are still slated as the, erm, "main opposition" to a Francois Legault government. Ironic considering their current majority situation, no?

Anyways, on to slightly more interesting news - another new party! Wow, that's what, the third, not counting the dozens of minor parties still floating about?

This time it's a party calling itself "Equipe Autonomiste," and is apparently started by a disgruntled adequiste EDA president, who doesn't like Legault's coalition. Fair enough, really. I actually expected this to happen, or at least for this tiny rump to move to the Liberals. It won't gain any traction, and it won't gum up the works too much, though could play an important spoiler vote if it received enough support (1-3%, just the same as Option Nationale would). It's fun to watch the breakdown of these electoral coalitions though, no?

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